Our Australia and New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments.
We believe that central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are done tightening policy. However, given that inflation is far from tamed in either country, policymakers are unlikely to drop their hawkish bias just yet. Although activity has proven somewhat resilient thus far, we doubt it can keep defying economic gravity. Consequently, we still expect both Antipodean economies to fall into recession before the year is out. As output falls and disinflation gathers pace, we expect central banks to start loosening policy next year. That said, GDP growth will return to potential only in 2025.
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