The African Growth and Opportunities Act (AGOA) is set to expire on Tuesday and, while this would deal only a modest blow at a macro level, it would mark yet another way in which the US is disengaging from the region, leaving space for China to expand its influence. For those considering aligning more closely with Beijing, Taiwan’s decision to impose curbs on chip exports on South Africa, although since suspended, may provide some reason for caution. Finally, Nigeria’s economy accelerated in Q2 on the back of higher oil output. That boost will fade but, disinflation, lower interest rates and loose fiscal policy in the run-up to the 2027 election means that growth will remain around 4% over 2026-27.
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