Commodities
Our commodities coverage provides detailed analysis, independent forecasts, and market outlooks for global commodities. We offer rapid responses to new data and developments, along with in-depth coverage of key themes, current trends, and future market dynamics.
Capital Economics named most accurate commodities price forecaster
Our Commodities team earned the highest number of awards and first-place rankings in the FocusEconomics 2024 forecast accuracy awards, including recognition as the most accurate forecaster of WTI crude oil, liquefied natural gas, and US steel.
This service offers high-level coverage of all the most important commodities, with in-depth analysis and independent forecasts for Energy, Metals and Agriculturals, in addition to pan-commodity themes.
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Our interactive Commodities Dashboard gives you the historical data and Capital Economics forecasts you need to track the outlook for key commodities. Available for data subscribers now.
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All Commodities Coverage
Oil
Our View: As OPEC+ follows through on its plan to unwind voluntary production cuts, the consequent loosening in supply constraints combined with subdued global demand growth will push prices lower in 2025 and 2026.
Get ahead of the risks from tariffs
Explore our brand new Oil Tariff Impact Tracker to follow near-term changes in North American oil production, trade flows, and prices. Available for data subscribers now.
Natural Gas & LNG
Our View: Natural gas prices in Europe and Asia will fall in 2025 and 2026 as more LNG supply becomes available. Meanwhile, the rise in AI-related energy demand will support US natural gas prices.
Gold & Silver
Our View: Precious metals prices are likely to stay historically high, buoyed by strong safe haven demand and central bank purchases.
Aluminium & Copper
Our View: The slowdown in China's property sector is an ongoing problem for demand. The green transition will offset some of that drag, but it will not do so entirely.
Steel & Iron Ore
Our View: Despite the risks posed by tariffs, prices will decline over 2025 against the backdrop of weak demand and plentiful steel supply from China.
Agriculturals
Our View: Grains and soybean prices are likely to fall by end-2025 due to improved supply, an easing in demand growth in China, and lower oil prices.
EU Carbon Price Coverage
Explore our range of resources on the EU's ETS including our in-depth mini-series on key market and price dynamics, and our new dashboard to track near-term market drivers.
Featured Economists
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David Oxley
Chief Climate and Commodities Economist
David Oxley joined Capital Economics in 2009 and is Chief Climate and Commodities Economist. Previously, he was in charge of our Swiss & Nordic coverage as well as contributing more generally to the Europe Economics service. David has extensive international experience as a macroeconomist in both the private and public sectors. He has lived and worked in both New Zealand and Switzerland. David has degrees in Economics from University College London and Queen Mary, University of London.
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Kieran Tompkins
Senior Climate and Commodities Economist
Kieran is a Senior Climate and Commodities Economist and has been with Capital Economics since 2020. He has worked across our Global, UK, and Markets teams and currently sits on our Climate and Commodities desk, primarily contributing to our Energy and Metals coverage. Kieran’s work has been featured in leading media outlets including the BBC, Bloomberg and the Financial Times. He holds a BSc in Economics from the University of Exeter, and an MSc in Economics from City, University of London.
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Olivia Cross
Climate and Commodities Economist
Olivia Cross is a Climate and Commodities Economist who joined the Capital Economics graduate training scheme in September 2021. She previously spent a year on placement at the company as part of her undergraduate degree. Olivia holds a degree in Economics with Politics from Loughborough University.
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Hamad Hussain
Climate and Commodities Economist
Hamad joined Capital Economics in July 2023 as a Climate and Commodities Economist, having previously spent a year on placement at the company as part of his undergraduate degree. He holds a degree in Economics from the University of Surrey.
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Lily Millard
Assistant Economist
Lily is an Assistant Economist and joined Capital Economics on the graduate scheme in September 2023. Prior to joining, she completed an internship at the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry with the International Affairs team. Lily has degrees in Economics and International Relations from the Australian National University.