Iron ore to suffer from China’s property weakness

Iron ore prices have been supported by optimism that policy stimulus may prevent a marked downturn in China’s construction sector. But we think that any stimulus-led boost will prove temporary and iron ore demand will weaken. Given that new low-cost supply is also set to come online this year, we expect iron ore prices to fall back to $85 and $70 per tonne by end-2025 and end-2026, respectively.

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