Mortgage Applications (Jul.)

The recent decline in mortgage rates buoyed refinancing activity in July, but didn’t prevent another month of declining home purchase activity. While market conditions are tight, there are still plenty of households looking to buy, which is why we expect housing demand to stay close to its current level in H2 2021.
Sam Hall Assistant Property Economist
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US Housing Market Data Response

New Home Sales (Oct.)

The marginal improvement in new home sales in October was flattered by a downward revision to September’s data, and the bigger picture is that sales have been fairly steady since May. Looking ahead housing demand will ease as mortgage rates rise but, with new home inventory set to remain much healthier compared to existing homes, new sales will see a steady rise to 880,000 annualised by end-2022.

24 November 2021

US Housing Market Data Response

Existing Home Sales (Oct.)

Existing home sales eked out a small gain in October, slowing considerably from last month’s increase. With inventory at a record low, buyer sentiment in a pit and mortgage rates on the rise, we expect sales will fall back to around 5.7m annualised by mid-2022, before rising slowly to 5.75m by end-2023.

22 November 2021

US Housing Market Update

MBS taper won’t widen mortgage spreads

The announcement that the Fed will start to taper its purchases of MBS this month is not set to widen mortgage spreads. The cut in demand will be gradual and offset by a moderation in the supply of MBS as home sales decline. With the cost of the prepayment option set to remain low, we expect the spread between the 30-year mortgage rate and 10-year Treasury yield to stay close to its current level of 170bps over the next few years.

18 November 2021

More from Sam Hall

US Housing Market Update

Increase in build-for-rent won’t derail SF rent growth

Surging demand for single-family homes has revived institutional investor interest in the single-family rental (SFR) market. With few homes available to buy, interest in build-for-rent (BFR) investment is growing. But given constraints in the home building sector and the small share of the market that institutional investors occupy, the impact on supply from the recent uptick in BFR development will be small. As a result, we expect market conditions to remain tight, supporting rental growth in the next year. Due to wider interest, this US Housing Update is also being sent to clients of our US Commercial Property Service

3 August 2021

US Commercial Property Data Response

RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q2)

Improvements in occupier demand boosted market sentiment in Q2. With over half of surveyors perceiving the property cycle to be in an upturn, prospects for H2 performance look solid. But while we share surveyors’ optimism about the industrial outlook, we think they are overly upbeat on offices.

29 July 2021

US Commercial Property Data Response

US Metro Employment (Jun.)

Employment growth accelerated in June, helping office-based employment return to pre-pandemic levels in almost a third of metros. But the 3m/3m growth rate in total employment was highest in the metros with the biggest shortfalls, as the return to normalcy continued to drive employment gains.

28 July 2021
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