Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jun)

House price growth surged above 18% y/y in June, setting record highs on both the Case-Shiller and FHFA measures. However, demand has fallen back since the start of the year, and the timelier Common Haus Price Index points to a slowdown in the second half of the year. We therefore expect annual growth will fall back from 18.6% y/y in June to 10% y/y by end-2021.
Sam Hall Assistant Property Economist
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US Housing Market Update

Why are pending and existing home sales diverging?

An increase in the quality of mortgage borrowers, and record low inventory, are boosting the mortgage closing rate and leading to an increase in the share of pending home sales converted into existing home sales. Those factors are not set to go into reverse anytime soon, so we don’t think existing sales will snap back to match the pending sales index over the next few months.

29 November 2021

US Housing Market Data Response

New Home Sales (Oct.)

The marginal improvement in new home sales in October was flattered by a downward revision to September’s data, and the bigger picture is that sales have been fairly steady since May. Looking ahead housing demand will ease as mortgage rates rise but, with new home inventory set to remain much healthier compared to existing homes, new sales will see a steady rise to 880,000 annualised by end-2022.

24 November 2021

US Housing Market Data Response

Existing Home Sales (Oct.)

Existing home sales eked out a small gain in October, slowing considerably from last month’s increase. With inventory at a record low, buyer sentiment in a pit and mortgage rates on the rise, we expect sales will fall back to around 5.7m annualised by mid-2022, before rising slowly to 5.75m by end-2023.

22 November 2021

More from Sam Hall

US Commercial Property Update

New supply won’t have major impact on industrial rental growth

Despite a higher construction pipeline for distribution warehouses, we think that a high share of pre-let space, coupled with strong demand, means vacancy will only be 20bps higher over the next few years as a result. In turn, we don’t expect it to have a large impact on rents, though it does pose some downside risk to our forecast.

27 August 2021

US Housing Market Data Response

New Home Sales (Jul.)

After a run of declines, new home sales eked out a small gain in July. The recent weakness in sales data likely reflects homebuilders restricting sales as they try to catch-up with the surge in demand seen last year. We therefore expect sales to climb higher as supply improves, ending the year at around 850,000 annualised.

24 August 2021

US Housing Market Data Response

Existing Home Sales (Jul)

Existing home sales surprised on the upside in July, rising for the second consecutive month. But with demand easing and inventory at record lows, we doubt this is the start of a resurgence. Instead, we expect sales will resume their downward trend to around 5.6m annualised by end-2021.

23 August 2021
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