This week the Democrats took the first step toward forcing a large-scale stimulus through the Senate using reconciliation, which only requires a simple majority. But even though it required an all-night session to pass the budget motion that unlocks reconciliation, that was arguably the easy step. It will be harder to get all 50 Democratic Senators to support the full $1.9trn package, which is why we still think the final stimulus will be a more modest $1.0trn and will have the proposed minimum wage hikes omitted.
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