What to expect from a Biden presidency

Much of President-elect Joe Biden’s agenda will be dead on arrival with the Republicans maintaining control of the Senate, but there is still a chance of more fiscal stimulus being passed, albeit probably not until after Biden takes office on 20th January.
Paul Ashworth Chief North America Economist
Continue reading

More from US

US Economics Weekly

Delta impact evident in both CPI and retail sales

While the data released this week showed retail spending picking up in August as price gains moderated, the figures are still consistent with a sharp slowdown in consumption growth in the third quarter while underlying inflationary pressures continue to build.

17 September 2021

US Economics Update

Rising cyclical pressure will keep inflation elevated

The spread of the Delta variant domestically has triggered a temporary reversal in the reopening inflation in high contact services, but its spread across other parts of the world will intensify supply shortages and drive goods prices higher. At the same time, transportation costs are soaring, energy prices are proving more resilient than we expected and cyclical inflation is still building. The upshot is that, while price inflation will fall next year, we expect it to rebound to well above 2% in 2023.

16 September 2021

US Data Response

Retail Sales (Aug.)

Even though the 0.7% rise in headline retail sales in August was much better than expected, the details were far less positive, with big downward revisions to previous months, while the rise in online and grocery store spending, which contrasts with stagnant spending at bars and restaurants, suggesting that Delta fears are playing a key role.

16 September 2021

More from Paul Ashworth

US Economics Update

Inflation “transitory”, but Fed now projects rate hikes

The Fed continued to stick to its view that the surge in inflation "largely" reflects "transitory factors", but officials revised their inflation projections up significantly for this year and the median projection now shows two 25bp interest rate hikes in 2023. In his press conference, Chair Jerome Powell argued that the Fed was still “a ways off” from achieving the substantial further progress toward its dual mandate goals that would trigger a tapering of its monthly asset purchases.

16 June 2021

US Data Response

GDP (Q1)

Buoyed by the two rounds of stimulus cheques sent out in the first three months of the year, first-quarter GDP growth accelerated to 6.4% annualised, driven by a massive 10.7% surge in consumption. That left the level of GDP less than 1% off its pre-pandemic peak. It will recapture that level in the second quarter and, with the pace of growth we expect, any remaining output gap should be eliminated before the end of this year.

29 April 2021

US Economics Update

Fed remains dovish despite strength of recovery

Although it took a more upbeat tone on the economic outlook and acknowledged that inflation has risen in its statement released after today’s FOMC meeting, the Fed offered no hints that it was considering slowing the pace of its asset purchases, let alone thinking about raising interest rates.

28 April 2021
↑ Back to top