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Student accommodation not set to see a rapid rebound

The student accommodation sector faces high levels of uncertainty for the fall 2021 academic year. In our view, demand for student housing will rebound from last year, but fall short of its pre-pandemic peak. Overall, we expect vacancy to nudge higher and rental values to edge back this year.
Sam Hall Assistant Property Economist
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US Commercial Property Focus

Ranking the US’s largest warehousing markets

We think that major distribution hubs, where rents are high and availability is low, will underperform their neighbouring markets over the next few years. Tenants will increasingly look past the major hubs in favour of nearby markets with better affordability and availability. Of these markets, we think that rental growth prospects are even better in the sunbelt due to the positive economic effects of inward migration. As a result, we think that prospects for the next three years are strongest in Memphis, Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, Philadelphia and Riverside.

4 August 2022

US Commercial Property Data Response

US Metro Employment (Jun.)

There was little evidence of any slowdown in June’s job figures, but the deep divisions in performance at the metro level remained. Dallas and Austin stood out on a range of comparisons, while Pittsburgh and L.A. continued to struggle.

3 August 2022

US Commercial Property Data Response

RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q2)

The latest RICS survey for the US highlighted the steepest drop in confidence since early 2020, abruptly reversing the building optimism of recent quarters. This adds to the growing evidence that the peak of the current cycle is now behind us, as investors grapple with a more challenging economic backdrop.

28 July 2022

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US Housing Market Data Response

Mortgage Applications (Jun.)

Home purchase mortgage applications fell back again in June, leaving them down 23% compared to the 11-year high seen in January. Tight inventory and stretched affordability are largely responsible for the recent downward trend in housing demand and we expect these factors will persist throughout the year.

7 July 2021

US Commercial Property Data Response

US Metro Employment (May.)

Employment growth in May was positive in all metros, largely driven by gains in the leisure & hospitality sector. This benefited Orlando, Los Angeles and Las Vegas the most, but still left employment around 10% below its pre-pandemic peak in the worst affected metros.

30 June 2021

US Housing Market Data Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Apr.)

House price growth gathered pace in April, with the annual growth rate hitting record highs on both the Case-Shiller and FHFA measures. But despite the pick-up in house price expectations, we don’t think a self-reinforcing bubble will form, nor do we expect values will crash. Rather, we think rising mortgage rates and stretched affordability will cool house price growth to around 7% y/y by the end of the year.

29 June 2021
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