US Commercial Property
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RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q2)

Improvements in occupier demand boosted market sentiment in Q2. With over half of surveyors perceiving the property cycle to be in an upturn, prospects for H2 performance look solid. But while we share surveyors’ optimism about the industrial outlook, we think they are overly upbeat on offices.
Sam Hall Assistant Property Economist
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US Commercial Property Update

Surging incentives reveal weakness in the office market

Office incentives packages rose to unprecedented levels in 2021, which supports our view that market conditions are weaker than asking rents suggest. Given our expectation that vacancy will remain elevated in the coming years, incentives are likely to diminish only gradually.

19 January 2022

US Commercial Property Data Response

Commercial Property Lending (Dec.)

Commercial real estate debt ended 2021 with its largest monthly increase since the onset of the pandemic. Against a backdrop of strong investment activity, we expect commercial property lending to have a strong start to 2022.

17 January 2022

US Commercial Property Update

Comparing office occupancy changes across US metros

Combining the change in leased space with the rise in sublease availability gives a more complete picture of the change in demand across office metros since the onset of the pandemic. This gives a more intuitive match between demand patterns and rental trends that we have seen so far. This Update forms part of a set of publications that extend our existing office and apartment market analysis beyond the six major metros that we currently forecast. Over the coming weeks, we will be expanding our coverage to include an additional 11 US metros in our regular quarterly analysis and forecasts. That will include the release of a new metro focused Chartbook and enlarged office and apartment metro Outlooks.

11 January 2022

More from Sam Hall

US Commercial Property Data Response

US Metro Employment (Jun.)

Employment growth accelerated in June, helping office-based employment return to pre-pandemic levels in almost a third of metros. But the 3m/3m growth rate in total employment was highest in the metros with the biggest shortfalls, as the return to normalcy continued to drive employment gains.

28 July 2021

US Commercial Property Update

Why we expect a gradual recovery in lending

The recent gains in lender sentiment showed the real estate recovery is heading in the right direction. As lenders gain confidence, standards should start to loosen, and industrial and multifamily borrowers will continue to benefit. But uncertainty around the outlook for other sectors will limit the pace of the recovery this year.

26 July 2021

US Housing Market Data Response

Existing Home Sales (Jun)

Existing home sales edged higher in June, but the bigger picture is that housing market activity is cooling. Booming house prices, rising mortgage rates and tight inventory will weigh on demand this year. As a result, we expect sales to resume their downward trend to around 5.6m annualised by end-2021.

22 July 2021
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