My subscription
...
Filters
My Subscription All Publications

Nationwide House Prices (Jun.)

House prices recorded a fifth consecutive monthly rise in June, the final month before the stamp duty threshold begins to return to its usual level. There are few signs of market dynamics changing dramatically as a result, so we expect a moderation in house price inflation rather than a collapse.
Andrew Wishart Property Economist
Continue reading

More from UK Housing

UK Housing Market Data Response

Halifax House Prices (Jul.)

Like Nationwide, Halifax reported that house price growth ground to a halt in July. As these house price indices are based on mortgage approvals, its possible that affordability rules put a temporary brake on prices. But equally it could be that the reversal in house price growth that we expect has already arrived.

5 August 2022

UK Housing Market Data Response

Nationwide House Prices (Jul.)

While the rise in the annual rate of house price growth from 10.7% in June to 11.0% in July will make most of the headlines that was driven by base effects. Instead, we think the main takeaway from the July figures is that house prices may already be stalling.

Bank of England Drop-In (4th August, 10:30 ET/15:30 BST): Join our post-MPC, 20-minute online briefing to find out why we think UK rates will rise by more than most expect, despite a looming recession. Register now

2 August 2022

UK Housing Market Chart Book

Deteriorating economic outlook hits sentiment

We now think that the reduction in consumer real incomes due to high inflation will push the economy into recession this year. But the Bank of England is likely to have to keep on raising interest rates regardless in order to bring inflation back down to acceptable levels. The impact of the rise in mortgage rates so far, from a trough of 1.4% last autumn to 2.9% in June, is already weighing on buyer demand. Indeed, the main driver of the drop in the Building Society Association’s measure of buyer sentiment to a 14-year low in June was the rising cost of monthly mortgage repayments. Given lenders margins are still slim by past standards, and that we think Bank Rate will rise further from 1.25% now to 3.00% next summer, demand will continue to weaken. As a result we think that house prices will stall by the end of the year before falling by 5% over the course of 2023 and 2024. Bank of England Drop-In (4th August, 10:30 ET/15:30 BST): Join our post-MPC, 20-minute online briefing to find out why we think UK rates will rise by more than most expect, despite a looming recession. Register now.    

29 July 2022

More from Andrew Wishart

UK Housing Market Data Response

RICS Residential Market Survey (Jun.)

Activity and house prices were extremely strong again in June according to the RICS survey, although there was a distinct softening in the more forward-looking balances. As supply remains limited, we think that house prices will prove resilient to the inevitable dip in transactions after the stamp duty holiday.

8 July 2021

UK Housing Market Data Response

Halifax House Prices (Jun.)

While we would be wary of reading too much into the small decline in house prices in June reported by Halifax, timely measures of house prices are consistent in pointing to a moderation in house price growth.

7 July 2021

UK Commercial Property Data Response

IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI (Jun.)

Despite a further deterioration in the availability of building materials, construction output rose at the fastest pace since 1997 in June. That suggests output in the sector is now well above pre-virus levels.

6 July 2021
↑ Back to top