The 0.3% m/m fall in real GDP in April wasn’t as weak as it looks, but it nonetheless increases the chances that the economy is slipping into recession. While this is unlikely to prevent the Bank of England from raising interest rates again on Thursday, it does increase the chances of a 25 basis point (bps) hike rather than the 50bps hike from 1.00% to 1.50% we are forecasting. We’ll be discussing the Bank’s next steps in a live Drop In webinar at 3pm on Tuesday 14th (Register here.)
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