UK Commercial Property

RICS Construction Market Survey (Q4)

The Q4 data showed a first rise in reported construction workloads since Q4 2019, albeit a modest one. With expectations more upbeat too, this could suggest activity has turned a corner. But tight credit conditions and a weak near-term economic outlook will limit workload in the coming months.
Prohad Khan Property Economist
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UK Commercial Property Update

Will COVID-19 shift real estate out of town?

With workers spending more time away from city centres, some expected that out-of-town offices could swing back into fashion. It is still early, but from the UK data, the evidence suggests that it is suburban retail, not offices, that is benefiting most from the home-working revolution.

15 October 2021

UK Commercial Property Update

What do the latest UK jobs data tell us?

UK employment has recovered strongly in recent quarters and is set to see further growth into 2022. This will be good news for UK offices, especially in regional cities. But with occupiers set to look beyond headcount when making their space decisions, we don’t think it will bring a turnaround in the sector.

7 October 2021

UK Commercial Property Data Response

IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI (Sep.)

The further drop in the construction PMI in September suggested that the recovery in construction has faltered amid a severe lack of materials and staff, spiralling costs, and softening demand.

6 October 2021

More from Prohad Khan

UK Commercial Property Update

South East office rents still have further to fall

Although we expect the economic outlook will continue to improve, we think that South East office rents will still edge lower this year. What’s more, we don’t expect much of a rebound in 2022, as a shift to remote working will continue to weigh on demand.

7 July 2021

UK Commercial Property Data Response

Lending to commercial property (May.)

After falling sharply in April, net lending rose in May. We think this can be explained by the extension of payment holidays rather than an increase in new loans. Further ahead, we expect a weak recovery in investment activity and, as the economic recovery gathers pace, we think banks will be less willing to grant further forbearance, so net lending will turn negative again.

29 June 2021

UK Commercial Property Update

Weak starts to limit construction after 2021

We think that delayed Central London office projects and new industrial starts will drive commercial construction output this year. But once the backlog of delayed projects has been exhausted, we think structural factors and high costs will deter developers from building new projects further out.

24 June 2021
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