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Ongoing pandemic to slow migration’s return to normal

The continued threat of new virus waves, and therefore fresh rounds of travel restrictions, suggests that global migration flows could remain subdued for a while yet. However, we continue to doubt that the pandemic will have any major lasting impact on migration flows.
Vicky Redwood Senior Economic Adviser
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More from The Long Run

Long Run Returns Monitor

Long Run Returns Monitor (Q2)

Our Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections in this publication are as of 9th May 2022. See a more detailed explanation of our views in our Long Run Economic Outlook and Long Run Asset Allocation Outlook.

12 May 2022

Long Run Update

Which COVID-behavioural changes are permanent?

We argued two years ago that the pandemic would accelerate changes that were already underway rather than trigger behavioural changes out of the blue. Now that most restrictions have been removed in advanced economies, spending on services and recreation are recovering quickly as we expected. The shift to hybrid working seems set to persist, but there is little evidence that this has affected productivity growth in either direction so far.

6 May 2022

Long Run Focus

How inequality affects the long-run outlook

Substantial fiscal support helped to prevent a big rise in income inequality within developed economies during the pandemic. But inequality was rising in many DMs before then and could revert to that trend if technological advances disproportionately benefit the better-off. While trends in inequality are unlikely to be a major determinant of long-run economic performance, high or rising inequality could still weigh slightly on economic growth and contribute to equilibrium interest rates staying relatively low.

3 May 2022

More from Vicky Redwood

Global Economics Update

There’s room for more fiscal support if needed

Concerns about the new Omicron variant raise the question of whether there is scope for policy to be as supportive during a new wave of the virus as it has been so far in the pandemic. Significant policy stimulus would probably only be needed if things got really bad again. If they did, financial markets would probably tolerate a further rise in government spending and borrowing; instead, the constraints would be political ones.

9 December 2021

Global Economics Focus

Will labour shortages spur productivity gains?

One possible upside of the current labour market shortages in developed economies is that they could push firms towards expanding output by raising investment and productivity instead of relying on cheap labour. However, any gains in productivity may not materialise quickly enough to prevent central banks from reacting to the pick-up in wage growth. In view of the wider interest, we have also made this Global Economics Focus available to clients of our Long Run Service.

2 December 2021

Global Economics Update

“Excess” household savings could yet boost spending

With household saving rates still elevated in most developed economies, “excess savings” have continued to rise. If people were to run down these savings, this would breathe new life into consumer recoveries.

9 November 2021
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