Egypt’s headline inflation rate dropped to 5.6% y/y in November and, while we think inflation will rise in the coming months, it is likely to be at the lower end of the central bank’s 7±2% target range on a more sustained basis from Q2 next year. Against that backdrop, Egypt’s central bank is likely to be one of the few in the world that will cut interest rates in 2022 (probably in the second half of the year).
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