Dim outlook for the silver price

We think that weaker physical demand, higher real US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar will mean that the recent poor performance of the silver price is set to continue over the next couple of years.
Kieran Tompkins Assistant Economist
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Industrial Metals Update

Green transition to help charge cobalt prices

Cobalt prices have soared in 2021 to almost double the 2020 average price of $31,726 per tonne. We expect the growth in EV production and issues around supply to continue to push prices higher in 2022.

2 December 2021

Metals Data Response

Global Steel Production (Oct.)

Global steel production contracted again in y/y terms in October, mainly owing to lower Chinese production. China’s output may rebound a little in the coming months as power rationing has come to an end, but weaker domestic demand will act as a disincentive.

23 November 2021

Metals Data Response

Global Aluminium Production (Oct.)

October’s IAI data suggest the easing of power restrictions in China has enabled greater utilisation rates at smelters, driving the global increase in output this month. We think that aluminium output will remain high over the rest of this year, incentivised by the high price. However, we expect that the slowing of the Chinese construction sector will weigh on demand and prices in 2022.

22 November 2021

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UK Economics Weekly

Shortages threatening to stifle the recovery

The list of anecdotal reports of labour and product shortages has grown ever longer in the past week and pose two major risks to the economy. First, that the near-term recovery will be slower than we expect. Second, that if they persist for longer than we suspect then inflation might not drop back to 2.0% in late-2022. These dual risks of slower GDP growth and higher inflation sound like a gentle whisper of stagflation.

27 August 2021

UK Data Response

IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Aug.)

The chunky fall in the composite activity PMI suggests that the economy struggled to gain fresh momentum in August despite the apparent easing of the “pingdemic” and the final relaxation of all domestic COVID-19 restrictions.

23 August 2021

UK Data Response

Money & Credit (Jun.)

The money and credit data showed that consumers were willing to take on more debt in June. However, with consumers accumulating excess savings at a faster pace, there were signs that the resurgence in virus cases may have triggered some consumer caution, which could weigh on the recovery.

29 July 2021
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