Global Aluminium Production (Sep.)

Slower growth in aluminium output in September was probably linked to surging power prices. The combination of constrained output and soaring production costs will support aluminium prices in the near term and we have raised our end-2021 aluminium price forecast.
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Industrial Metals Update

Green transition to help charge cobalt prices

Cobalt prices have soared in 2021 to almost double the 2020 average price of $31,726 per tonne. We expect the growth in EV production and issues around supply to continue to push prices higher in 2022.

2 December 2021

Metals Data Response

Global Steel Production (Oct.)

Global steel production contracted again in y/y terms in October, mainly owing to lower Chinese production. China’s output may rebound a little in the coming months as power rationing has come to an end, but weaker domestic demand will act as a disincentive.

23 November 2021

Metals Data Response

Global Aluminium Production (Oct.)

October’s IAI data suggest the easing of power restrictions in China has enabled greater utilisation rates at smelters, driving the global increase in output this month. We think that aluminium output will remain high over the rest of this year, incentivised by the high price. However, we expect that the slowing of the Chinese construction sector will weigh on demand and prices in 2022.

22 November 2021

More from Luke Nickels

Industrial Metals Update

Pulling the plug; power rationing in China

Power rationing in China has raised concerns about metal supply. But perhaps less obvious is that power rationing will also negatively affect demand if manufacturing activity is curtailed. On balance, we think that the supply impact will dominate and support prices in the coming months, but we expect prices to fall back in 2022 as economic activity, particularly construction, in China continues to slow.

19 October 2021

Industrial Metals Update

Nickel market set to remain oversupplied

We believe that current high nickel prices will prove short lived, and expect weaker economic growth in China and the tapering of US monetary policy support to depress demand for nickel and pull down its price by the end of the year.

28 September 2021

Commodities Update

Evergrande collapse would put a ceiling on prices

Although a messy collapse of Evergrande is a downside risk to our near-term price forecasts, it adds weight to our view that China’s construction sector is in structural decline. In turn, this underpins our view that industrial metals prices will be on the back foot until 2025 at least.

23 September 2021
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