Global Aluminium Production (Aug.)

August’s IAI data suggest that fears that power rationing in Chinese smelting hubs would negatively impact supply, which have boosted aluminium prices to decade highs, are overdone. Instead, we think that any fall in supply will be compensated by weaker demand, causing prices to fall by end-2021.
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Metals Data Response

Global Aluminium Production (Dec.)

Although global aluminium output fell in y/y terms in December, it still grew strongly over 2021. The lifting of power restrictions in China has helped increase global output despite a reduction in European output resulting from energy shortages. Looking ahead, we expect a slowdown in Chinese construction activity to weigh on aluminium prices in 2022.

20 January 2022

Industrial Metals Update

Slower growth in China to drag on prices in 2022

While high power prices and low stocks will support prices in the near term, we think that prices will pull back in the second half of 2022 as Chinese economic activity slows further and supply improves. Drop-In: Neil Shearing will host an online panel of our senior economists to answer your questions and update on macro and markets this Thursday, 13th January (11:00 ET/16:00 GMT). Register for the latest on everything from Omicron to the Fed to our key calls for 2022. Registration here.

13 January 2022

Metals Data Response

Global Steel Production (Nov.)

Global steel production contracted in y/y terms in November, mainly owing to depressed output in China. Although China’s power rationing came to an end last month, there are no signs of an upturn in steel supply. Given our expectation that construction-related steel demand will remain subdued, a sustained rebound in China’s steel production appears unlikely in the coming months.

22 December 2021

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Commodities Update

Evergrande collapse would put a ceiling on prices

Although a messy collapse of Evergrande is a downside risk to our near-term price forecasts, it adds weight to our view that China’s construction sector is in structural decline. In turn, this underpins our view that industrial metals prices will be on the back foot until 2025 at least.

23 September 2021

Industrial Metals Update

Zinc set to lose its shine

After climbing to multi-year highs in May, the zinc price has stayed strong, with much less volatility than its counterparts. However, we feel weaker economic growth in China and US tapering of monetary policy will work in tandem with the ongoing recovery in supply to push prices lower by end-year.

6 September 2021

Industrial Metals Update

Cooling Chinese growth to weigh on metal prices

China’s latest activity data are further evidence of a slowdown in its economy. This aligns with our view that industrial metals demand will soften in the year ahead, putting downward pressure on prices.

18 August 2021
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