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What Mexico’s current account means for the peso

We expect that Mexico’s current account deficit will narrow, and could even turn to a small surplus, over the rest of the year as a strong goods surplus outweighs weaker remittance inflows. That should help the currency to strengthen over the rest of the year – our end-2020 forecast is 21.5/$ (from 22.3/$ now).
Olivia Cross Research Assistant
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More from Latin America

Latin America Data Response

Brazil IPCA-15 (May 2022)

The further rise in Brazilian inflation, to 12.2% y/y in the middle of May, supports our view that there will be another 75pb of hikes in the current tightening cycle (to 13.50%). Investors seem to have come round to this view recently. LatAm Drop-In (26th May, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Join our 20-minute briefing about Colombia’s election and other regional political and fiscal risks – including Lula vs Bolsonaro in October. Register here.

24 May 2022

Latin America Data Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (May)

While Mexico’s headline inflation edged down to 7.6% y/y in the first two weeks of May, this will provide little comfort to the central bank as price pressures remain stubbornly strong. The risks are still skewed towards Banxico becoming more aggressive and delivering a 75bp rate hike at its next meeting in June. LatAm Drop-In (26th May, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Join our 20-minute briefing about Colombia’s election and other regional political and fiscal risks – including Lula vs Bolsonaro in October. Register here.

24 May 2022

Latin America Economics Weekly

Chile’s new constitution, Brazil’s improving finances

Some of the doubts over Chile’s political system have eased after the Constitutional Convention completed a draft of the new charter, but political risks remain high for now, which may keep the peso on the backfoot in the coming months. Elsewhere, while the Brazilian government’s budget deficit has continued to narrow, we don’t think the country’s fiscal troubles are over for good. LatAm Drop-In (26th May, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Join our 20-minute briefing about Colombia’s election and other regional political and fiscal risks – including Lula vs Bolsonaro in October. Register here.

20 May 2022

More from Olivia Cross

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Assessing the fallout from the tourist slump

Borders are slowly re-opening across Emerging Europe, but international tourists are unlikely to return to the region in significant numbers for the key summer season. Romania and Russia are the least vulnerable and efforts to promote domestic tourism should soften the blow in Central Europe. But the loss of tourism will weigh on the recovery in Turkey and provide a significant hit to GDP in Croatia and the Baltic States.

7 July 2020

Africa Economics Update

Assessing the damage to tourism sectors in Africa

Tourism sectors across Africa, like much of the rest of the world, are at a standstill and any recovery is likely to be slow going. Even if travel restrictions are lifted international tourists are unlikely to return this year, and a big hit to incomes will also put domestic tourism on hold. Overall, we expect the direct hit to knock 2-4% from GDP across the region this year.

25 June 2020
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