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Japan Flash PMIs (Jun. 2022)

The PMIs suggest that supply shortages are still holding back manufacturing output and adding to price pressures. On a more upbeat note, the surveys also point to a strong pick-up in consumption as the economy rebounds from the Omicron wave and international tourists return. Asia Drop-In (30th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind the curve? Can the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China continue to go against the grain? Find out in our special session on what global monetary tightening looks like in Asia. Register now.  
Marcel Thieliant Senior Japan, Australia & New Zealand Economist
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Japan Data Response

Japan External Trade (Jul. 2022)

Japan’s trade deficit widened to a record high in July but it should start to shrink over the coming months as supply shortages and commodity prices continue to ease. Asia Drop-In (25th Aug.): What’s the economic impact of a weak yen? What does the latest China-Taiwan flare-up mean for decoupling? How ugly are conditions in China’s real estate sector? Join economists from across our Asia services for this regular briefing on the region’s big investment stories. Register now.

17 August 2022

Japan Data Response

Japan GDP (Q2 2022 Preliminary)

Japan’s economy grew in Q2 driven mainly by private consumption, though the overall figure disappointed mainly due to fluctuations in stockbuilding that won’t last. The recovery should persist through Q3 and Q4, though the pace will slacken a bit, as strong investment momentum is offset by a more subdued consumption outlook. We expect GDP to return to its pre-virus trend before long.

15 August 2022

Japan Economics Weekly

Demographic woes persist, tourists waiting at the gate

An exodus of long-term migrants contributed to the 0.6% fall in Japan’s population last year but with border controls loosened since March net migration is bouncing back strongly. Even so, we still see GDP growth settling around 0.5% over the longer-term as a shrinking workforce offsets productivity gains. Meanwhile, Japan remains a highly popular tourist destination and once the onerous procedural requirements for entry are lifted, probably sometime in Q4, tourist arrivals and spending should rebound strongly.

12 August 2022

More from Marcel Thieliant

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA could raise rates even faster than we anticipate

We’ve long been arguing that the RBA will lift rates more sharply than most analysts anticipate and the RBA’s surprise 50bp rate hike this week is consistent with our view that rates will reach 3% by early-2023. We’ve pencilled in additional 50bp hikes in July and August, but with inflation set to accelerate further, consumption growth still very strong and the labour market remaining very tight, the risk is clearly that the Bank will continue to hike aggressively for even longer.

10 June 2022

Japan Economics Weekly

Jump in working hours points to strong Q2 rebound

The recent jump in overtime hours largely reflects severe labour shortages at hotels and restaurants rather than any surge in demand. However, with overall working hours on track for a strong rise this quarter, we’re sticking to our above-consensus forecast for Q2 GDP growth.

10 June 2022

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Housing downturn will prompt RBA rate cuts in 2023

With the RBA set to hike the cash rate to 3% by early-2023, we now expect house prices to fall by 15% from their April peak. While the economy has considerable momentum from reopening in the near-term, plunging house prices will weigh on consumer spending and dwellings investment and force the RBA to cut interest rates in late-2023.

8 June 2022
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