We expect generally higher long-term EM bond yields

We think investors may be overestimating how much monetary policy tightening is on the way in emerging markets (EMs), but still expect long-dated EM government bond yields to rise a bit from here.
Thomas Mathews Markets Economist
Continue reading

More from Global Markets

Global Markets Update

We think that China’s equities will continue to struggle

Even though we doubt that China’s equities will fare anywhere near as badly over the next couple of years as they did in 2021, we do not expect them to make strong gains from here either.

14 January 2022

Global Markets Update

Key financial market calls for 2022

We do not think the returns from many financial assets will be as good in 2022 as they were in 2021. For a start, we envisage a sell-off in government bonds in most places, reflecting the outlook for monetary policy. And, in general, we foresee an underwhelming performance from equities, including in the US and China. We expect this backdrop to be accompanied by a further broad-based rise in the US dollar. In view of the wider interest, this Global Markets Update is also available to clients of our Asset Allocation & FX Markets services.

13 January 2022

Global Markets Update

Revising our forecasts for DM 10-year bond yields

We continue to expect monetary tightening to push up 10-year government bond yields across developed markets (DMs) but we now forecast them to reach a higher level than we had previously anticipated, especially in the US, Germany and the UK.

12 January 2022

More from Thomas Mathews

Global Markets Update

Oil prices, inflation compensation and Treasury yields

Although oil prices and inflation compensation have historically moved in lockstep, we don’t think our projection that oil prices will fall over the next couple of years is inconsistent with our forecast for long-term Treasury yields to rise quite a bit.

2 July 2021

Capital Daily

Stress tests, the financial sector and bond yields

We think the positive results from the Federal Reserve’s stress tests remove an obstacle to higher bond yields, while reinforcing the positive outlook for the financial sector.

29 June 2021

Global Markets Update

We expect the 10-year Treasury yield to rise again

Although the 10-year Treasury yield has eased back following last week’s FOMC meeting, we still expect it to increase again before too long.

24 June 2021
↑ Back to top