US election and “Brexit” having little economic impact

The upcoming Presidential election does not seem to be having much impact on economic activity either in the US itself or elsewhere. Admittedly, it looks at first sight as if recent movements in global equity markets have been driven by changes in Clinton and Trump’s electoral prospects. But instead, we suspect that both Clinton’s odds of victory and the equity markets are being driven by news about the US economy. Meanwhile, the latest evidence generally points to a modest pick-up in growth in the US in the third quarter. And while economic growth in the UK seems to have slowed in the wake of the EU referendum, it has not collapsed. Elsewhere, there has been something of a pick-up in growth in several major emerging economies, including Brazil, China and India.