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Euro-zone Industrial Production (Nov.)

November’s 2.3% monthly increase in euro-zone industrial production followed a big downward revision to October’s figures and was largely due to huge volatility in Ireland. The big picture is that industry now seems likely to have contracted in Q4, presenting a downside risk to our forecast of a 0.2% rise in GDP.
Michael Tran Assistant Economist
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European Data Response

German Ifo Survey (May)

The Ifo survey for May suggests that activity in Germany may be holding up a little better than we had feared. But the headline Business Climate Index is still consistent with GDP contracting in year-on-year terms and the expectations component shows that businesses think the situation will get worse. ECB Drop-In (24th May 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Could the ECB deliver a hawkish surprise? Join economists from our Europe and Markets teams for a discussion about what to expect from the Bank’s tightening cycle, including the chances for a bumper hike in July or even an early move at next month’s meeting. Register now.

23 May 2022

European Data Response

Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (May)

The small increase in euro-zone consumer confidence in May left it only slightly higher than its low point at the start of the pandemic. With confidence extremely low and real incomes squeezed by high inflation, we expect a drop in household spending to cause the euro-zone economy to contract in Q2.

20 May 2022

European Economics Weekly

High inflation, record trade deficit

Data released over the past week revealed that the euro-zone recorded its first monthly current account deficit since 2012 and provided further evidence that underlying price pressures are building. We expect the latter to prompt the ECB to raise rates by 25bp, if not 50bp, in July. Next week, the PMIs and Ifo for May will provide more evidence that the euro-zone and German economies are at risk of recession. ECB Drop-In (24th May 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Could the ECB deliver a hawkish surprise? Join economists from our Europe and Markets teams for a discussion about what to expect from the Bank’s tightening cycle, including the chances for a bumper hike in July or even an early move at next month’s meeting. Register now.  

20 May 2022

More from Michael Tran

European Data Response

EC Survey (Dec.) & Retail Sales (Nov.)

The EC Economic Sentiment Indicator decreased markedly in December, as the surge in Covid cases and tightening of restrictions took their toll on activity in the services sector. The survey also showed that inflation expectations remained extremely high.

7 January 2022

European Data Response

Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.)

The renewed decline in the Composite PMI in December suggests that growth slowed to a crawl as tighter restrictions and growing consumer caution are taking their toll on economic activity, with the service sector bearing the brunt. And the spread of the Omicron variant is a significant downside risk to Q1. Note: Central Bank Drop-In – The Fed, ECB and BoE are just some of the key central bank decisions expected in this packed week of meetings. Neil Shearing and a special panel of our chief economists will sift through the outcomes on Thursday, 16th December at 11:00 ET/16:00 GMT and discuss the monetary policy outlook for 2022.

16 December 2021

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Norway Consumer Prices (Nov.)

Headline inflation reached a 13-year high in November, mainly driven by energy inflation. But the core rate was more subdued and is likely to remain below the Norges Bank’s target throughout 2022.

10 December 2021
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