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Euro-zone Industrial Production (Mar.)

The decline in industrial output in March shows that the war in Ukraine is having a severe impact on manufacturers. With further Russian energy import bans looming and supply shortages remaining acute, we think this is the start of a manufacturing recession which will cause GDP to stagnate.
Michael Tran Assistant Economist
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European Data Response

German ZEW Survey (August)

The ZEW survey fell again in August and is at a level consistent with the economy contracting. We now think a recession is unavoidable in the second half of this year as the impact of high energy prices on both households and industry takes effect. Europe Drop-In (18th Aug.): Winter is coming to the European economy – but how harsh will it get? Join this special briefing on the economic impact of Russia’s gas supply threat. Register now.  

16 August 2022

European Economics Weekly

Energy crisis hotting up

The biggest problem in Europe’s energy markets is the reduction in Russia’s gas exports. But extreme weather conditions are compounding the problem by making life difficult for nuclear, hydro and coal-fired power plants. Next week, we expect to learn that employment increased slightly in the second quarter. Drop-In: Europe under siege – The economic impact of Russia’s gas threat Thursday, 18th August 10:00 ET/15:00 BST. Register now.

12 August 2022

European Economics Focus

Why we expect a euro-zone recession

We think the euro-zone will soon fall into recession as high inflation, tighter monetary policy and weak global growth take their toll. While the economy should recover next year, the rebound will be held back by a lack of policy support. What’s more, we think the biggest risks to our forecasts are to the downside, notably from Russia turning off the gas taps completely or the ECB failing to avert a sovereign debt crisis.

11 August 2022

More from Michael Tran

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Sweden Consumer Prices (Apr.)

The stronger-than-expected increase in Swedish inflation in April was partly due to high energy and food prices but also because of broadening price pressures. We expect the core rate to remain above the Riksbank’s target for some time, which will prompt it to continue hiking interest rates.

12 May 2022

European Data Response

Euro-zone Retail Sales (Mar.) & Final PMIs (Apr.)

The decrease in euro-zone retail sales in March is the first indication from official data that the war in Ukraine is weighing on consumption. With the final PMI surveys pointing to price pressures intensifying and firms remaining pessimistic, we think 2022 will be a year of stagflation for the euro-zone.

4 May 2022

European Data Response

Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (Apr.)

The rise in consumer confidence in April was slightly better than expected. Nevertheless, confidence is still very low and points to household spending falling in April. That’s consistent with our assumption that the euro-zone economy will contract in Q2 as consumption declines.

21 April 2022
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