EM growth subdued but stable

There has been very little in the latest data to justify fears of a widespread collapse in emerging markets. While economic growth remains subdued, conditions appear to have stabilised in recent months and our GDP Tracker actually points to a slight uptick in growth in Q3. Admittedly, the downturn in Brazil has deepened over the past few months. But Russia’s economy appears to be bottoming out and conditions in China – which has been the focus of recent concerns – now seem to be improving. Activity in commodity-producing EMs will remain depressed over the final few months of this year, but we expect to see a gradual improvement in growth elsewhere in the emerging world.