The potential for around 3 million refugees to settle in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) by the middle of this year will present a large fiscal cost, but will also boost the size of the labour force and GDP in the near term. We estimate that the increase in fiscal spending could amount to 1-3% of GDP over the next year and if refugees settle in CEE that could raise the size of the labour force by 2% or so. The combination of these may contribute to a more sustained boost to GDP growth in the order of 1-2%-pts. Commodities Drop-In (24 March, 11:00 EDT/15:00 GMT): Our Commodities team will be exploring how the war in Ukraine is shaking up commodity markets, from oil to wheat, while tackling some of the big market questions – not least whether we’re in for 1970s-style oil supply shocks. Register here.
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