Philippines CPI (August)

While the spike in August inflation in the Philippines makes the central bank’s (BSP) policy decision this month an even closer call, the worsening outlook for the economy means we are sticking with our non-consensus view of a 25bp cut on 23rd September.
Alex Holmes Emerging Asia Economist
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Emerging Asia Economics Weekly

Recent rate hikes not the start of a trend

Attention over the past week has been on the region’s more hawkish central banks, following rate hikes in Korea and Pakistan. Both countries, along with Sri Lanka (which unexpectedly left rates unchanged at its meeting on Thursday) are likely to raise interest rates further over the coming months. But these countries are very much the exception. For the rest of the region, we think interest rates will remain on hold as central banks look to keep monetary policy loose to support recoveries. Meanwhile, virus cases are rising again in Vietnam. While restrictions have been tightened, they have so far been fairly light touch, including a closure of bars and nightclubs and capacity limits on restaurants in some southern provinces. Nevertheless, the jump in cases will be watched closely by global carmakers, which were hit hard by the disruption from previous factory closures.   Drop-In: Why is Asia sitting out the global inflation surge? 09:00 GMT/17:00 HKT, Thursday 2nd December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3546145/A9D34EF592141BEFCAC819ADB40359D5?partnerref=report Drop-In: India – How much scarring will the pandemic leave? 10:00 ET/15:00 GMT, Wednesday 1st December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3535749/63CC51718846E8FF3D871827AC84AF1E?partnerref=report

26 November 2021

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Bank of Korea to hike at least three more times in 2022

Today’s move by the Bank of Korea is likely to mark the second hike of at least five, in a tightening cycle that began in August and will extend well into next year.

25 November 2021

Emerging Asia Data Response

Singapore GDP (Q3, Revised)

Revised Q3 GDP data show that Singapore’s economy grew more strongly than first thought last quarter, and while containment measures mean the recovery is unlikely to have gained much momentum so far this quarter, a gradual reopening should see growth accelerate in the coming months.

24 November 2021

More from Alex Holmes

Emerging Asia Economics Weekly

Korea spending boost, Malaysia rate meeting

Korea’s proposed budget for 2022 indicates that fiscal policy will remain supportive next year. This should give the BoK added reassurance that the economy will be able to withstand further rate hikes. Meanwhile, the central bank of Malaysia’s meeting on Thursday is likely to be a close decision. A rate cut cannot be ruled out, but with GDP set to rebound strongly over the coming months, we think the policy rate will be left unchanged.

3 September 2021

Emerging Asia Data Response

Korea Trade (August)

Having flattened off in previous months, exports saw a renewed rise in August. While this is unlikely to mark the start of another surge, we still expect exports to remain elevated over the coming quarters.

1 September 2021

Emerging Asia Data Response

Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.)

Falling output indices in Korea and Taiwan suggest that the virus disruption in South East Asia is reverberating across the region. The end of supply chain shortages continues to slip further out of sight.

1 September 2021
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