My subscription
...
Filters
My Subscription All Publications

China Official PMIs (Aug.)

The latest surveys suggest that China’s economy contracted last month as virus disruptions weighed heavily on services activity. Industry also continued to come off the boil as supply chain bottlenecks worsened and demand softened.
Julian Evans-Pritchard Senior China Economist
Continue reading

More from China

China Economics Update

Policy easing stepping up

The State Council has announced support measures totalling 1.7% of GDP. Most of this comprises incentives for banks to lend to struggling firms, rather than fiscal stimulus. The People’s Bank has also made a call for “all-out” efforts to boost lending, so this does constitute a meaningful policy shift. But the measures that have been detailed so far still fall some way short of what was implemented in 2020. Asia Drop-In (26th May, 0900 BST/16:00 SGT): Can Asia remain the low inflation exception? Join our 20-minute briefing about the region’s price and policy outlooks. Register here.

24 May 2022

China Economics Weekly

How quickly can activity rebound?

China’s previous COVID outbreaks offer a few clues to how quickly the economy will rebound this time. Even if further large-scale lockdowns are avoided, activity is unlikely to have recovered in full until near the end of the year, with the service sector slower to get back on its feet than industry.
Asia Drop-In (26th May, 0900 BST/16:00 SGT): Can Asia remain the low inflation exception? Join our 20-minute briefing about the region’s price and policy outlooks. Register here.

20 May 2022

China Economics Update

A helping hand for the housing market

Today’s reduction to the five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) should help drive a revival in housing sales, which have gone from bad to worse recently. But the lack of any reduction to the one-year LPR suggests that the PBOC is trying to keep easing targeted and that we shouldn’t expect large-scale stimulus of the kind that we saw in 2020.

20 May 2022

More from Julian Evans-Pritchard

China Economics Weekly

Property comedown, vaccine setback

The macro backdrop behind Evergrande’s latest profit warning is a rapidly cooling property market. Home sales have fallen below 2019 levels in recent weeks, with the prop to demand from excess household savings built up earlier in the pandemic fading. Meanwhile, China’s reluctance to embrace foreign vaccines that would aid its fight against COVID-19 was on show this week.

27 August 2021

China Activity Monitor

Delta speed bump not the only drag

Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that output dropped back further in July. This shouldn’t be dismissed as a temporary setback due to the recent virus outbreak. The main drag last month came from industry and construction, where the key headwinds are tight credit conditions and supply bottlenecks.

24 August 2021

China Economics Weekly

Growth jitters, tech woes, Huarong lifeline

There was plenty for China watchers to digest during the past week. Weak data for July added to growth fears, with virus disruptions and tighter credit conditions meaning that worse is still to come. Meanwhile, a flurry of regulatory action and signs of a mounting campaign to reduce inequality further clouded the outlook for China’s big tech firms, and productivity growth more generally. On a more positive note, officials made some headway in defusing financial risks.

20 August 2021
↑ Back to top