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Australia Wage Price Index (Q4)

The Q4 wage data won’t alter the RBA’s view that inflation isn’t sustainably within its 2-3% target band yet, but we still expect the Bank to start hiking in June as inflation surprises to the upside.
Marcel Thieliant Senior Japan, Australia & New Zealand Economist
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RBNZ Watch

RBNZ tightening cycle will stop by year-end

Rising interest rates are weighing on the housing market but economic activity is holding up and inflation has continued to accelerate. The upshot is that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hike interest rates by another 50bp at the upcoming meeting on 17th August, but we expect smaller 25bp across Q4.

10 August 2022

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA will press on with another 50bp hike next month

The Reserve Bank of Australia has indicated that it will slow the pace of tightening over coming months as tighter policy is starting to weigh on activity. With growth softening rather than collapsing, we’re sticking to our forecast of another 50bp hike next month, but we now expect the Bank to revert to smaller 25bp hikes during the fourth quarter.  

5 August 2022

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

International Trade (Jun. 2022)

The surge in Australia’s trade surplus to yet another record-high in June suggests that net exports will boost Q2 GDP growth by around 1%-pt though that tailwind will fade before long.

4 August 2022

More from Marcel Thieliant

Japan Economics Update

What would a 5-year yield target mean for Japan?

If the Bank of Japan shortened the duration of its yield target, the impact on economic activity and inflation would probably be small but it could improve the long-term health of insurers and pension funds. It’s not clear though what could prompt such a policy shift and we expect the Bank to stick to its 10-year target for the foreseeable future.

22 February 2022

Japan Economics Weekly

Vaccine boost, surging manufacturing profits

Services spending finally showed signs of life last quarter, underlining that the vaccine boost is finally filtering through. Another reason to be confident about the outlook is that consumer price inflation remains subdued while capital goods prices are rising the most in decades. That means that households’ purchasing power isn’t being eroded by soaring living costs as in many other advanced economies, while the profit margins of Japanese manufacturers have reached record highs despite soaring input costs.

18 February 2022

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia - Slump in fertility need not slow population growth

The sharp drop in the fertility rate during the pandemic has already started to reverse. And even if it is sustained, the government will be able to offset a slower natural increase with higher net migration. The upshot is Australia will remain one of the fastest growing advanced economies.

14 February 2022
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