South Africa Activity Data (Aug.)

South Africa’s hard activity data for August point to a bumpy recovery following a large hit to the economy in July, adding to reasons to think that interest rates are unlikely to be raised imminently.
Virag Forizs Emerging Markets Economist
Continue reading

More from Africa

Africa Economics Update

Debt sustainability in Zambia: mission impossible?

Zambia’s new administration has made encouraging noises about restoring macroeconomic stability and addressing the country’s public debt problem. But it will be a tall order to secure a large restructuring and stick to the fiscal consolidation that will be needed to leave the public debt ratio on an even keel.

2 December 2021

Africa Data Response

South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Nov.)

South Africa’s manufacturing PMI rebounded last month, but the emerging fourth virus wave and the threat from the Omicron variant has clouded the outlook for activity in the sector and the wider economy.

1 December 2021

Africa Chart Book

Omicron shines spotlight on low vaccine coverage

The emergence of the Omicron strain of COVID-19 reinforces the need to boost vaccine coverage in Sub-Saharan Africa from current low levels. Most countries have administered at least one vaccine dose to less than 20% of their populations. The South African authorities’ initial response to the ‘Omicron threat’ was to urge the take-up of vaccines, rather than tightening containment measures. And so long as vaccine coverage is low, the risk of intermittent curbs on activity to relieve strains in health care sectors will linger with future virus waves and variants. Achieving such vaccine coverage will probably take some time even as Africa’s vaccine supplies – including from China and India – look set to increase over the coming quarters.

30 November 2021

More from Virag Forizs

Africa Economics Weekly

Signals from the SARB, Nigeria’s humdrum budget

The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) Monetary Policy Review published this week put monetary policy normalisation back in the centre of attention, and it now seems that policymakers are unlikely to stand pat for much longer. We now expect the first rate hike in January, but we still think that the tightening cycle will be slower than investors are pricing in. Meanwhile in Nigeria, budget plans for 2022 suggest that the country’s fiscal problems will persist.

8 October 2021

Africa Economics Weekly

Debt data disclosures, SA fiscal buffer evaporating

Reports suggesting that many developing countries, including some in Africa, have larger external debts to China than officially reported reinforce concerns about a lack of transparency. At the very least, debt restructuring talks will get tougher. Meanwhile, in South Africa, the public finances have almost certainly taken a turn for the worse since the rosy outturn in the second quarter.

1 October 2021

Africa Data Response

South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Sep.)

South Africa’s manufacturing PMI softened last month, pointing to a slowdown in the rebound from the hit to activity in July from tighter virus containment measures and violent unrest. Supply disruptions are also biting. We think that the manufacturing sector’s recovery will be sluggish over the coming months.

1 October 2021
↑ Back to top