CE Spotlight Chapter 6: Blowing bubbles? AI's financial market implications The AI revolution is likely to add to upward pressure on real and nominal bond yields, but should also be a positive for stock markets. One reason is the prospect of even faster growth in earnings... 26th September 2023 · 0 mins read
CE Spotlight Chapter 5: AI and the global economic order Our new, proprietary AI Economic Impact Index suggests that the US will lead and be one of the main beneficiaries of the AI revolution. This will widen its outperformance over the euro-zone, and also... 26th September 2023 · 0 mins read
CE Spotlight Chapter 4: The policy dilemmas from AI If the AI revolution is unlikely to lead to widespread technological unemployment, then there should be no need for much-vaunted policies such as a Universal Basic Income. Instead policymakers should... 26th September 2023 · 0 mins read
CE Spotlight Chapter 3: AI, jobs and prices Fears of a big rise in “technological unemployment” are misplaced; if anything the net impact on labour demand will ultimately be positive. But the potential for AI to affect a much wider range of... 26th September 2023 · 0 mins read
CE Spotlight Chapter 2: AI's economic revolution We believe that the new breed of generative artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to deliver a substantial boost to productivity growth. This is more likely to be a late-2020s and 2030s story... 26th September 2023 · 0 mins read
CE Spotlight Chapter 1: AI – What’s all the fuss about? Given its wide range of potential applications, the new breed of machine learning techniques and generative AI would appear to have all the characteristics to become a standalone general-purpose... 26th September 2023 · 0 mins read
CE Spotlight The fracturing of the global economy The shocks caused by the pandemic, the war in Ukraine and US-China tensions will have a lasting impact on the world economy, reversing decades of global integration in some areas while strengthening... 6th October 2022 · 17 mins read
CE Spotlight Fracturing and financial flows The trend towards ever more “financial globalisation” has already decelerated and will probably slow further as the global economy fractures and policymakers favour resilience over efficiency. While a... 6th October 2022 · 25 mins read
CE Spotlight The macroeconomic effects of fracturing Fracturing of global economic and financial ties will lead to shifts in supply chains, and reduced technology and investment flows between US- and China-centred blocs over the coming decade... 6th October 2022 · 20 mins read
CE Spotlight Fracturing and the impact on geopolitics & institutions In a fractured world, the role of global institutions is likely to decline even further. The consequences of weakened multilateral economic institutions (e.g. the IMF and World Bank) would be felt... 6th October 2022 · 15 mins read
CE Spotlight Securing raw materials in a fractured world China’s dominance in the supply of some key materials needed for the green transition means that US-aligned governments will continue efforts to secure supplies from “friendly” sources, which could... 6th October 2022 · 14 mins read
CE Spotlight The threat to migration flows The globalisation witnessed over recent decades has manifested itself in increased flows of trade, capital and people. We have already discussed what the fracturing of the world economy might imply... 6th October 2022 · 15 mins read
CE Spotlight What might fracturing mean for the markets? Fracturing will be felt very differently by markets in different parts of the world. Sectors within US-aligned markets where ties with China are most likely to fracture could see significant ructions... 6th October 2022 · 23 mins read
CE Spotlight The impact of fracturing on trade and supply chains Fracturing will not be felt as globalisation in reverse – apart from a few categories of goods deemed politically sensitive or strategically important, most trade between the US and China-aligned... 6th October 2022 · 20 mins read