CE Spotlight Spotlight: The future of global macro and markets leadership - Will the US be overtaken? We expect the US to remain the world’s pre-eminent global economy for the foreseeable future. Not only will its own economic performance remain comparatively strong – not least as the advent of AI... 10th June 2024 · 1 min read
CE Spotlight Spotlight: Chapter 3 - Can the US stock market keep outshining the rest? US economic dominance has not always translated into stock market outperformance. Since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), however, US equities have largely outperformed those in the rest of the world... 10th June 2024 · 25 mins read
CE Spotlight Spotlight: Chapter 2 - Will the US retain its economic lead and who might challenge it? The US’s economic leadership is partly related to its sheer size, but its population also works more than other countries and it fares better on productivity. While the US economy faces various... 10th June 2024 · 39 mins read
CE Spotlight Spotlight: Chapter 1 - How has the US outperformed? For all its flaws, the US has long been a world-leading economy in a number of important respects. It has been an economic leader as the largest economy in the world since the late 1870s. While GDP... 10th June 2024 · 12 mins read
CE Spotlight Spotlight: Executive Summary: The future of global macro and markets leadership We expect the US to remain the world’s pre-eminent global economy for the foreseeable future. Not only will its own economic performance remain comparatively strong – not least as the advent of AI... 10th June 2024 · 6 mins read
CE Spotlight Chapter 6: Blowing bubbles? AI's financial market implications The AI revolution is likely to add to upward pressure on real and nominal bond yields, but should also be a positive for stock markets. One reason is the prospect of even faster growth in earnings... 26th September 2023 · 0 mins read
CE Spotlight Chapter 5: AI and the global economic order Our new, proprietary AI Economic Impact Index suggests that the US will lead and be one of the main beneficiaries of the AI revolution. This will widen its outperformance over the euro-zone, and also... 26th September 2023 · 0 mins read
CE Spotlight Chapter 4: The policy dilemmas from AI If the AI revolution is unlikely to lead to widespread technological unemployment, then there should be no need for much-vaunted policies such as a Universal Basic Income. Instead policymakers should... 26th September 2023 · 0 mins read
CE Spotlight Chapter 3: AI, jobs and prices Fears of a big rise in “technological unemployment” are misplaced; if anything the net impact on labour demand will ultimately be positive. But the potential for AI to affect a much wider range of... 26th September 2023 · 0 mins read
CE Spotlight Chapter 2: AI's economic revolution We believe that the new breed of generative artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to deliver a substantial boost to productivity growth. This is more likely to be a late-2020s and 2030s story... 26th September 2023 · 0 mins read
CE Spotlight Chapter 1: AI – What’s all the fuss about? Given its wide range of potential applications, the new breed of machine learning techniques and generative AI would appear to have all the characteristics to become a standalone general-purpose... 26th September 2023 · 0 mins read
CE Spotlight What might fracturing mean for the markets? Fracturing will be felt very differently by markets in different parts of the world. Sectors within US-aligned markets where ties with China are most likely to fracture could see significant ructions... 6th October 2022 · 23 mins read
CE Spotlight The macroeconomic effects of fracturing Fracturing of global economic and financial ties will lead to shifts in supply chains, and reduced technology and investment flows between US- and China-centred blocs over the coming decade... 6th October 2022 · 20 mins read
CE Spotlight Fracturing and the impact on geopolitics & institutions In a fractured world, the role of global institutions is likely to decline even further. The consequences of weakened multilateral economic institutions (e.g. the IMF and World Bank) would be felt... 6th October 2022 · 15 mins read
