CE Spotlight The fracturing of the global economy The shocks caused by the pandemic, the war in Ukraine and US-China tensions will have a lasting impact on the world economy, reversing decades of global integration in some areas while strengthening... 6th October 2022 · 17 mins read
CE Spotlight Fracturing and financial flows The trend towards ever more “financial globalisation” has already decelerated and will probably slow further as the global economy fractures and policymakers favour resilience over efficiency. While a... 6th October 2022 · 25 mins read
CE Spotlight The macroeconomic effects of fracturing Fracturing of global economic and financial ties will lead to shifts in supply chains, and reduced technology and investment flows between US- and China-centred blocs over the coming decade... 6th October 2022 · 20 mins read
CE Spotlight Fracturing and the impact on geopolitics & institutions In a fractured world, the role of global institutions is likely to decline even further. The consequences of weakened multilateral economic institutions (e.g. the IMF and World Bank) would be felt... 6th October 2022 · 15 mins read
CE Spotlight Securing raw materials in a fractured world China’s dominance in the supply of some key materials needed for the green transition means that US-aligned governments will continue efforts to secure supplies from “friendly” sources, which could... 6th October 2022 · 14 mins read
CE Spotlight The threat to migration flows The globalisation witnessed over recent decades has manifested itself in increased flows of trade, capital and people. We have already discussed what the fracturing of the world economy might imply... 6th October 2022 · 15 mins read
CE Spotlight What might fracturing mean for the markets? Fracturing will be felt very differently by markets in different parts of the world. Sectors within US-aligned markets where ties with China are most likely to fracture could see significant ructions... 6th October 2022 · 23 mins read
CE Spotlight The impact of fracturing on trade and supply chains Fracturing will not be felt as globalisation in reverse – apart from a few categories of goods deemed politically sensitive or strategically important, most trade between the US and China-aligned... 6th October 2022 · 20 mins read
CE Spotlight The rebirth of inflation? The debate over inflation has become polarised between those who expect a return to the 1970s and those who believe inflation is still dead. The reality is more nuanced and inflation outcomes are... 30th September 2021 · 9 mins read
CE Spotlight What would an era of higher inflation mean for currencies? We think that a return to a regime of higher and less stable inflation in many major economies would result in a rise in exchange rate volatility and, over time, the depreciation of the currencies of... 30th September 2021 · 14 mins read
CE Spotlight What would an era of higher inflation mean for markets? We expect underlying inflation in the US to be significantly higher over the next decade on average than it has been over the last one. Nonetheless, we don’t think that it will climb sharply from here... 29th September 2021 · 27 mins read
CE Spotlight Will US-China decoupling be inflationary? China’s integration into the global economy contributed to the low inflation environment of recent decades. But it was not the major driver and, in any case, China’s integration peaked several years... 28th September 2021 · 24 mins read
CE Spotlight Have emerging markets vanquished inflation? Low inflation is here to stay in much of the emerging world. However, there is a significant risk that inflation rises, albeit moderately, over the medium term in several countries. This risk isn’t... 27th September 2021 · 26 mins read
CE Spotlight Will higher inflation force central banks to raise rates? We think a sustained period of inflation in the region of 3-4% over the coming years could be dealt with relatively easily by central banks. But if inflation were to rise much further than this... 23rd September 2021 · 33 mins read
CE Spotlight Will a transition to net-zero cause higher inflation? A gradual transition to ‘net-zero’ emissions would have a modest impact on inflation but could still make life more difficult for central banks if it happened at a time when other pressures were... 22nd September 2021 · 6 mins read
CE Spotlight How much is too much? Inflation’s costs and benefits A period of moderately higher inflation could be a good thing for many economies, but there is a risk that policymakers become too accepting of the situation. We judge that the costs of higher... 21st September 2021 · 21 mins read
