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What might fracturing mean for the markets?

Fracturing will be felt very differently by markets in different parts of the world. Sectors within US-aligned markets where ties with China are most likely to fracture could see significant ructions. But we expect little impact on most bond and equities in developed markets and assets of emerging markets within the US-led block could receive a boost. In contrast, we see fracturing as a major headwind for asset markets in China and some other countries in its bloc.

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