Fracturing of global economic and financial ties will lead to shifts in supply chains, and reduced technology and investment flows between US- and China-centred blocs over the coming decade. Geopolitical considerations will play a greater role in economic policy than they have for a generation. If the shifts are gradual, economies and financial markets in much (though not all) of the world will adapt without too much cost, but destabilising shocks will be a greater risk than they have been the past.
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