We believe that the new breed of generative artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to deliver a substantial boost to productivity growth. This is more likely to be a late-2020s and 2030s story than something to expect over the next few years. To the extent that the ICT revolution is a good guide to what to expect, we might expect a boost to annual productivity growth in economies that fully embrace AI in the region of 1.5%-pts for a period of a decade or two. However, not all of this will necessarily be picked up in the official GDP figures. And the extent to which AI is successfully utilised will differ significantly by country.
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