China Economics Weekly AI trade surplus rising, despite surge in chip imports China's trade deficit in chips and computing equipment has increasing significantly over the past year as imports have surged. But an even larger pick-up in exports of other goods required to build... 2nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: Global Economic Outlook – How long can the resilience last? 30th September 2026, 3:00PM BST Despite rising inflation, geopolitical tensions and higher bond yields, the global economy has continued to defy expectations. But can that resilience endure?
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly AI boost to productive capacity remains elusive We share RBA Governor Bullock’s view that the AI boom is currently doing more to boost demand than the economy’s supply side. With business surveys also suggesting that price pressures remain elevated... 25th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The AI bubble hasn’t burst yet We don’t think the fall in tech stocks’ relative valuations means the AI bubble has burst yet, and the rally may have a bit further to go. Meanwhile, there’s potential for market-moving news at the US... 21st September 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update AI having a small impact on EZ productivity growth Growth in output and productivity in the euro-zone’s information and communication sector is very strong by historical standards, no doubt reflecting the impact of AI. However, so far there is no... 15th September 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Leap in margins another sign of late-stage bull market The US corporate profit share has climbed to historic highs, mainly due to soaring profitability in AI-related technology sectors. But history suggests that such rapid gains in margins are difficult... 14th September 2026 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly US-China AI gap widens again The release of several new US models this week has pushed Chinese AI further away from the frontier. US AI labs appear to be eroding China's cost advantage too. But it is too soon to conclude that... 4th September 2026 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update How should Asian central banks respond to the AI boom? Growth in several Asian economies is running well above previous estimates of trend, driven by a surge in demand for semiconductors and other AI-related products. Yet inflationary pressures remain... 2nd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Flattening yield curves, CAPE nears dotcom extremes We don’t expect lasting relief for short-dated Treasuries, although we expect those in Europe to fare better over time. Meanwhile, our base case remains that the equity market has further to rise... 31st August 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt at centre of US-China AI tussle, Iran-Oman deal Egypt's decision over whether to have the US or China build a data centre could have ramifications for the country’s broader ties with the two superpowers and provide a framework for other EMs facing... 27th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Concentrated earnings probably mean concentrated returns Although S&P 500 earnings have become even more dominated by a handful of companies, that hasn’t consistently translated into larger companies outperforming smaller ones lately. We expect big-tech... 27th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily More bond pressure, more AI wobbles We don’t think it’s time to panic about long-dated government bonds, even though the headwinds they face are gathering strength. 24th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: capitalising on the AI data centre boom Malaysia is emerging as one of the biggest beneficiaries of the global AI boom. Rapid growth in data-centre investment and information-service exports should provide a powerful boost to GDP over the... 19th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Bonds Update What to make of hyperscalers’ rising debt levels While most US hyperscalers have ample capacity to take on additional debt to fund their AI-related capex, financing constraints are slowly appearing for the less financially robust parts of the AI... 17th August 2026 · 4 mins read
India Economics Focus Is India adapting to the AI revolution? Recent job losses in the outsourcing sector have fuelled fears about the negative macro impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on India’s economy. But the services sector as a whole appears to be... 13th August 2026 · 10 mins read
