CE Spotlight The rebirth of inflation? The debate over inflation has become polarised between those who expect a return to the 1970s and those who believe inflation is still dead. The reality is more nuanced and inflation outcomes are... 30th September 2021 · 9 mins read
CE Spotlight What would an era of higher inflation mean for currencies? We think that a return to a regime of higher and less stable inflation in many major economies would result in a rise in exchange rate volatility and, over time, the depreciation of the currencies of... 30th September 2021 · 14 mins read
CE Spotlight What would an era of higher inflation mean for markets? We expect underlying inflation in the US to be significantly higher over the next decade on average than it has been over the last one. Nonetheless, we don’t think that it will climb sharply from here... 29th September 2021 · 27 mins read
CE Spotlight Will US-China decoupling be inflationary? China’s integration into the global economy contributed to the low inflation environment of recent decades. But it was not the major driver and, in any case, China’s integration peaked several years... 28th September 2021 · 24 mins read
CE Spotlight Have emerging markets vanquished inflation? Low inflation is here to stay in much of the emerging world. However, there is a significant risk that inflation rises, albeit moderately, over the medium term in several countries. This risk isn’t... 27th September 2021 · 26 mins read
CE Spotlight Will higher inflation force central banks to raise rates? We think a sustained period of inflation in the region of 3-4% over the coming years could be dealt with relatively easily by central banks. But if inflation were to rise much further than this... 23rd September 2021 · 33 mins read
CE Spotlight Will a transition to net-zero cause higher inflation? A gradual transition to ‘net-zero’ emissions would have a modest impact on inflation but could still make life more difficult for central banks if it happened at a time when other pressures were... 22nd September 2021 · 6 mins read
CE Spotlight How much is too much? Inflation’s costs and benefits A period of moderately higher inflation could be a good thing for many economies, but there is a risk that policymakers become too accepting of the situation. We judge that the costs of higher... 21st September 2021 · 21 mins read
CE Spotlight Are the structural headwinds to inflation fading? The past few decades have been marked by a combination of sustained disinflationary forces, but the picture in more recent years, and particularly since the pandemic, looks more mixed. Globalisation... 20th September 2021 · 20 mins read
CE Spotlight Will a post-pandemic surge in demand fuel inflation? Demand was always likely to rebound strongly as economies re-opened and confidence returned. Beyond this, though, there are reasons to think that we could now be in for a period of sustained strong... 16th September 2021 · 25 mins read
CE Spotlight What has driven periods of higher inflation in the past? When contemplating whether we are entering a new era of higher inflation, it makes sense to first reflect upon the lessons from history. While there are several insights that apply to the current... 14th September 2021 · 26 mins read
CE Spotlight How long will pandemic price pressures last? Global supply problems could put some further upward pressure on inflation in the near term, but the increase in inflation experienced in the immediate wake of the COVID crisis is close to peaking and... 10th September 2021 · 22 mins read
