We expect the US to remain the world’s pre-eminent global economy for the foreseeable future. Not only will its own economic performance remain comparatively strong – not least as the advent of AI plays to its advantages – but the other key contenders for global leadership will struggle to overcome their own handicaps. That said, the US may not play quite as dominant a role as it has in recent decades. And unlike in recent years, economic strength will not necessarily translate into stock market strength. In the near term, US equities might continue to outperform, but further ahead, the bursting of the AI bubble will drag on US relative returns.
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