Chief Economist's Note AI and the macro outlook: two questions shaping the debate The questions that come up most often in client meetings tend to offer a good barometer of the issues preoccupying investors. Over the course of this year, the focus has shifted markedly. The first... 17th November 2025
Global Economics Focus Has the AI “jobpocalypse” begun? The deterioration in the entry-level jobs market has sparked concerns that an “AI jobpocalypse” is upon us. While AI is a contributing factor – especially in some specialised fields like software... 11th November 2025 · 17 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia poised to reap benefits from AI boom Australian imports of automatic data processing machines are growing at a breakneck pace, driven by the rapid expansion of data centre construction. We believe the AI revolution will continue to... 7th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus What’s driving Australia’s productivity slump? The main factors behind the ongoing weakness in productivity are the demise of the country’s mining sector, a dearth of business investment and a post-pandemic surge in net migration. The latter has... 5th November 2025 · 13 mins read
India Economics Update AI offers several upsides to India despite BPO disruption Recent lay-off announcements from several major IT firms in response to advances in artificial intelligence (AI) offer a stark glimpse of the technology’s potential to disrupt India’s business process... 29th October 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Early signals of Five-Year Plan priorities China's 15th Five-Year Plan will be finalised at the Fourth Plenum later this month. There are limited signs so far of a significant shift in the leadership's priorities – it seems likely that... 3rd October 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook A tale of two recoveries The Australian economy bounced back strongly in Q2, and it increasingly appears that the recovery has legs. In contrast, the New Zealand economy remains mired in a deep slump, and we believe that it... 25th September 2025 · 20 mins read
US Economics Weekly The judiciary strikes back The conventional wisdom is that President Trump has pushed well beyond the established bounds on executive power in his second term. In a number of areas, including tariffs, deportations, the use of... 5th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Don’t blame the public sector for Australia's productivity malaise Even though direct government spending now accounts for the largest share of GDP on record, we aren’t convinced that this explains the prolonged weakness in productivity growth. 21st August 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: BoJ will welcome resilience of Japan’s economy While faster productivity growth makes it easier for firms to absorb stronger wage growth, the Bank of Japan will welcome the resilience of consumer spending and business investment since Liberation... 15th August 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Productivity growth picking up in New Zealand While the Q2 labour force survey out of New Zealand showed that labour demand remains dismal, it's worth noting that firms have been squeezing more out of their existing employees. The resultant lift... 8th August 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Is the economy already benefitting from an AI boom? Investment in both computer hardware and software surged in the first half of this year, which could be a sign that the AI boom is now boosting economic growth. Most of that hardware is imported... 7th August 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Focus China’s push for innovation is not lifting productivity China is mounting a push for global technological leadership by deploying industrial policy on a huge scale. Judging by how competitive many Chinese firms now are at the cutting edge, the effort is... 2nd June 2025 · 25 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus How will Australia weather the China slowdown? Although the détente in the trade war may provide some respite to the Chinese economy in the near term, we remain pessimistic about its longer run prospects. The slowdown in China will undoubtedly... 27th May 2025 · 15 mins read
Europe Economics Focus A European defence revolution? Europe’s economy will receive a modest boost from the German-led rise in defence spending over the next couple of years. The bigger question is whether it is the start of a move towards creating a... 13th May 2025 · 23 mins read
