Chief Economist's Note Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing gives his weekly take on the big issues in the global economy and highlights key analysis and events from Capital Economics Chief Economist's Note Ignore the ‘Truss’ comparisons – rising JGB yields reflect Japan’s new normal Is the widow-maker out of business? For years, investor bets that yields on Japanese government bonds (JGBs) would rise from rock-bottom levels were routinely crushed by the Bank of Japan’s... 26th January 2026 Chief Economist's Note Deflation at home, disruption abroad – China’s growth model is a lose-lose The aphorism “where you stand depends on where you sit” is well applied to the global economy. Beyond the value of reconnecting with clients, my trip to the Middle East and Asia last week was a... 19th January 2026 Chief Economist's Note Forget the spheres and watch the blocs: The messy reality of a fractured world The opening days of 2026 have been a stunning reminder of how far geopolitics has returned as a driver of economic and market narratives. First came the US operation to seize Venezuelan president... 12th January 2026 Chief Economist's Note The US intervenes in Venezuela: Economic and geopolitical implications The removal of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro by the US is unlikely to have meaningful near-term economic consequences for the global economy. But its political and geopolitical ramifications... 4th January 2026 Chief Economist's Note Holiday reading, and the 2025 themes that will shape the coming year The year’s home stretch is a natural moment to take stock of the major developments of the last twelve months and get some perspective on the likely challenges in 2026. With that in mind – and for... 15th December 2025 Chief Economist's Note Key risks for 2026: What could go wrong (and right) next year? Last week I outlined the key macro themes that are likely to shape the global economy in 2026. This week I tackle a question that has come up frequently in subsequent client meetings: What are the key... 8th December 2025 Chief Economist's Note Five macro themes that will shape the world in 2026 The past year has underlined just how influential a handful of macro and market forces have become, from the AI investment boom to persistent US-China tensions to the build up of fiscal risks. Those... 1st December 2025 Chief Economist's Note The UK Budget’s stark lesson: no growth plan means no good fiscal options Fiscal policy returns to centre stage this week, with Chancellor Rachel Reeves set to deliver her Autumn Budget on Wednesday. The debate will revolve around the size of the fiscal squeeze required to... 24th November 2025 Chief Economist's Note AI and the macro outlook: two questions shaping the debate The questions that come up most often in client meetings tend to offer a good barometer of the issues preoccupying investors. Over the course of this year, the focus has shifted markedly. The first... 17th November 2025 Chief Economist's Note Tariffs, the Supreme Court, and the shape of trade in a fractured world President Trump has described the Supreme Court case over his tariff regime – with characteristic restraint – as “literally, LIFE OR DEATH for our Country”. Hyperbole aside, the stakes are indeed high... 10th November 2025 Chief Economist's Note FOMO, not fundamentals, drives gold and undermines the ‘debasement’ story The pullback in gold prices over the past week shouldn’t have come as a surprise. The yellow metal has been on such an extraordinary tear this year that it had become even more unmoored from any... 27th October 2025 Chief Economist's Note The great tariffs illusion: Trade flows shift, but imbalances endure One of the more dispiriting aspects of the US–China trade war is the insistence from both Washington and Beijing that they are “winning.” The truth, of course, is that no one wins a trade war. Yet the... 20th October 2025 Chief Economist's Note France is in a mess but this isn’t 2012 redux What began as a political crisis risks descending into farce. Barely a week after stepping down, Sébastien Lecornu has been reappointed as France’s prime minister, the fourth in a year. The episode... 13th October 2025 Chief Economist's Note Expectations upended: Why Europe’s still stalled as America surges It wasn’t meant to turn out like this. Only a few months ago, when Donald Trump swept back into the White House, the story was one of fading US exceptionalism. The consensus view was that tariffs... 6th October 2025 Chief Economist's Note How much is too much? Thinking through triggers of the next fiscal crisis It is now widely acknowledged that the public finances of several advanced economies are on perilous ground. We have identified Italy, France, the United States, and the United Kingdom – the so-called... 29th September 2025 Chief Economist's Note Tariffs may stall trade growth, but China’s overcapacity is the bigger danger What will happen to global trade now that the contours of Donald Trump’s tariffs regime are starting to take shape? It’s a question that kept cropping up in talks with clients in Copenhagen last week... 22nd September 2025 Pagination Current page 1 Page 2 Page 3 Page 4 Page 5 Page 6 Page 7 Page 8 Page 9 … Next
Chief Economist's Note Ignore the ‘Truss’ comparisons – rising JGB yields reflect Japan’s new normal Is the widow-maker out of business? For years, investor bets that yields on Japanese government bonds (JGBs) would rise from rock-bottom levels were routinely crushed by the Bank of Japan’s... 26th January 2026
Chief Economist's Note Deflation at home, disruption abroad – China’s growth model is a lose-lose The aphorism “where you stand depends on where you sit” is well applied to the global economy. Beyond the value of reconnecting with clients, my trip to the Middle East and Asia last week was a... 19th January 2026
Chief Economist's Note Forget the spheres and watch the blocs: The messy reality of a fractured world The opening days of 2026 have been a stunning reminder of how far geopolitics has returned as a driver of economic and market narratives. First came the US operation to seize Venezuelan president... 12th January 2026
Chief Economist's Note The US intervenes in Venezuela: Economic and geopolitical implications The removal of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro by the US is unlikely to have meaningful near-term economic consequences for the global economy. But its political and geopolitical ramifications... 4th January 2026
Chief Economist's Note Holiday reading, and the 2025 themes that will shape the coming year The year’s home stretch is a natural moment to take stock of the major developments of the last twelve months and get some perspective on the likely challenges in 2026. With that in mind – and for... 15th December 2025
Chief Economist's Note Key risks for 2026: What could go wrong (and right) next year? Last week I outlined the key macro themes that are likely to shape the global economy in 2026. This week I tackle a question that has come up frequently in subsequent client meetings: What are the key... 8th December 2025
Chief Economist's Note Five macro themes that will shape the world in 2026 The past year has underlined just how influential a handful of macro and market forces have become, from the AI investment boom to persistent US-China tensions to the build up of fiscal risks. Those... 1st December 2025
Chief Economist's Note The UK Budget’s stark lesson: no growth plan means no good fiscal options Fiscal policy returns to centre stage this week, with Chancellor Rachel Reeves set to deliver her Autumn Budget on Wednesday. The debate will revolve around the size of the fiscal squeeze required to... 24th November 2025
Chief Economist's Note AI and the macro outlook: two questions shaping the debate The questions that come up most often in client meetings tend to offer a good barometer of the issues preoccupying investors. Over the course of this year, the focus has shifted markedly. The first... 17th November 2025
Chief Economist's Note Tariffs, the Supreme Court, and the shape of trade in a fractured world President Trump has described the Supreme Court case over his tariff regime – with characteristic restraint – as “literally, LIFE OR DEATH for our Country”. Hyperbole aside, the stakes are indeed high... 10th November 2025
Chief Economist's Note FOMO, not fundamentals, drives gold and undermines the ‘debasement’ story The pullback in gold prices over the past week shouldn’t have come as a surprise. The yellow metal has been on such an extraordinary tear this year that it had become even more unmoored from any... 27th October 2025
Chief Economist's Note The great tariffs illusion: Trade flows shift, but imbalances endure One of the more dispiriting aspects of the US–China trade war is the insistence from both Washington and Beijing that they are “winning.” The truth, of course, is that no one wins a trade war. Yet the... 20th October 2025
Chief Economist's Note France is in a mess but this isn’t 2012 redux What began as a political crisis risks descending into farce. Barely a week after stepping down, Sébastien Lecornu has been reappointed as France’s prime minister, the fourth in a year. The episode... 13th October 2025
Chief Economist's Note Expectations upended: Why Europe’s still stalled as America surges It wasn’t meant to turn out like this. Only a few months ago, when Donald Trump swept back into the White House, the story was one of fading US exceptionalism. The consensus view was that tariffs... 6th October 2025
Chief Economist's Note How much is too much? Thinking through triggers of the next fiscal crisis It is now widely acknowledged that the public finances of several advanced economies are on perilous ground. We have identified Italy, France, the United States, and the United Kingdom – the so-called... 29th September 2025
Chief Economist's Note Tariffs may stall trade growth, but China’s overcapacity is the bigger danger What will happen to global trade now that the contours of Donald Trump’s tariffs regime are starting to take shape? It’s a question that kept cropping up in talks with clients in Copenhagen last week... 22nd September 2025
