Chief Economist's Note Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing gives his weekly take on the big issues in the global economy and highlights key analysis and events from Capital Economics Chief Economist's Note This is not 2022: Why this energy shock demands a different policy response The surge in global oil and gas prices that has followed the outbreak of war with Iran has inevitably drawn comparisons with the energy shock that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine four years ago... 13th March 2026 Chief Economist's Note How will the Iran war affect the global economy? A version of this note was originally published by Chatham House on Friday, 6th March. With the war with Iran in its second week, the most immediate and tragic costs are measured in lives lost. Yet... 10th March 2026 Chief Economist's Note The Middle East conflict: What it means for economies and markets The war in the Middle East raises a broad set of macro and market questions. All of our analysis is collected on this page, and our summary views on some of the most pressing issues are outlined below... 6th March 2026 Chief Economist's Note Will China finally pass its big rebalancing test? Fresh conflict in the Middle East has understandably consumed the global macro news cycle – after all, a sharp and sustained rise in energy prices risks an inflationary resurgence which could, in the... 4th March 2026 Chief Economist's Note On that AI "doom loop" I will return with my usual note on Monday. In the meantime, given the volume of client enquiries prompted by Citrini’s paper on the consequences of an AI-driven “abundance of intelligence” - and the... 27th February 2026 Chief Economist's Note The resilient global economy – and the imbalances lurking beneath Over the past year the global economy has been buffeted on several fronts: from escalating trade tariffs to assaults on policy norms and longstanding institutions, and now warnings of a fracture in... 9th February 2026 Chief Economist's Note Fear and loathing in currency markets This has been a turbulent past week for the dollar. A sharp sell-off at the start of last week revived the “Sell America” narrative, before the currency partially recovered after Donald Trump... 2nd February 2026 Chief Economist's Note Ignore the Truss comparisons – rising JGB yields reflect Japan’s new normal Is the widow-maker out of business? For years, investor bets that yields on Japanese government bonds (JGBs) would rise from rock-bottom levels were routinely crushed by the Bank of Japan’s... 26th January 2026 Chief Economist's Note Deflation at home, disruption abroad – China’s growth model is a lose-lose The aphorism “where you stand depends on where you sit” is well applied to the global economy. Beyond the value of reconnecting with clients, my trip to the Middle East and Asia last week was a... 19th January 2026 Chief Economist's Note Forget the spheres and watch the blocs: The messy reality of a fractured world The opening days of 2026 have been a stunning reminder of how far geopolitics has returned as a driver of economic and market narratives. First came the US operation to seize Venezuelan president... 12th January 2026 Chief Economist's Note The US intervenes in Venezuela: Economic and geopolitical implications The removal of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro by the US is unlikely to have meaningful near-term economic consequences for the global economy. But its political and geopolitical ramifications... 4th January 2026 Chief Economist's Note Holiday reading, and the 2025 themes that will shape the coming year The year’s home stretch is a natural moment to take stock of the major developments of the last twelve months and get some perspective on the likely challenges in 2026. With that in mind – and for... 15th December 2025 Chief Economist's Note Key risks for 2026: What could go wrong (and right) next year? Last week I outlined the key macro themes that are likely to shape the global economy in 2026. This week I tackle a question that has come up frequently in subsequent client meetings: What are the key... 8th December 2025 Chief Economist's Note Five macro themes that will shape the world in 2026 The past year has underlined just how influential a handful of macro and market forces have become, from the AI investment boom to persistent US-China tensions to the build up of fiscal risks. Those... 1st December 2025 Chief Economist's Note The UK Budget’s stark lesson: no growth plan means no good fiscal options Fiscal policy returns to centre stage this week, with Chancellor Rachel Reeves set to deliver her Autumn Budget on Wednesday. The debate will revolve around the size of the fiscal squeeze required to... 24th November 2025 Chief Economist's Note AI and the macro outlook: two questions shaping the debate The questions that come up most often in client meetings tend to offer a good barometer of the issues preoccupying investors. Over the course of this year, the focus has shifted markedly. The first... 17th November 2025 Pagination Current page 1 Page 2 Page 3 Page 4 Page 5 Page 6 Page 7 Page 8 Page 9 … Next
Chief Economist's Note This is not 2022: Why this energy shock demands a different policy response The surge in global oil and gas prices that has followed the outbreak of war with Iran has inevitably drawn comparisons with the energy shock that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine four years ago... 13th March 2026
Chief Economist's Note How will the Iran war affect the global economy? A version of this note was originally published by Chatham House on Friday, 6th March. With the war with Iran in its second week, the most immediate and tragic costs are measured in lives lost. Yet... 10th March 2026
Chief Economist's Note The Middle East conflict: What it means for economies and markets The war in the Middle East raises a broad set of macro and market questions. All of our analysis is collected on this page, and our summary views on some of the most pressing issues are outlined below... 6th March 2026
Chief Economist's Note Will China finally pass its big rebalancing test? Fresh conflict in the Middle East has understandably consumed the global macro news cycle – after all, a sharp and sustained rise in energy prices risks an inflationary resurgence which could, in the... 4th March 2026
Chief Economist's Note On that AI "doom loop" I will return with my usual note on Monday. In the meantime, given the volume of client enquiries prompted by Citrini’s paper on the consequences of an AI-driven “abundance of intelligence” - and the... 27th February 2026
Chief Economist's Note The resilient global economy – and the imbalances lurking beneath Over the past year the global economy has been buffeted on several fronts: from escalating trade tariffs to assaults on policy norms and longstanding institutions, and now warnings of a fracture in... 9th February 2026
Chief Economist's Note Fear and loathing in currency markets This has been a turbulent past week for the dollar. A sharp sell-off at the start of last week revived the “Sell America” narrative, before the currency partially recovered after Donald Trump... 2nd February 2026
Chief Economist's Note Ignore the Truss comparisons – rising JGB yields reflect Japan’s new normal Is the widow-maker out of business? For years, investor bets that yields on Japanese government bonds (JGBs) would rise from rock-bottom levels were routinely crushed by the Bank of Japan’s... 26th January 2026
Chief Economist's Note Deflation at home, disruption abroad – China’s growth model is a lose-lose The aphorism “where you stand depends on where you sit” is well applied to the global economy. Beyond the value of reconnecting with clients, my trip to the Middle East and Asia last week was a... 19th January 2026
Chief Economist's Note Forget the spheres and watch the blocs: The messy reality of a fractured world The opening days of 2026 have been a stunning reminder of how far geopolitics has returned as a driver of economic and market narratives. First came the US operation to seize Venezuelan president... 12th January 2026
Chief Economist's Note The US intervenes in Venezuela: Economic and geopolitical implications The removal of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro by the US is unlikely to have meaningful near-term economic consequences for the global economy. But its political and geopolitical ramifications... 4th January 2026
Chief Economist's Note Holiday reading, and the 2025 themes that will shape the coming year The year’s home stretch is a natural moment to take stock of the major developments of the last twelve months and get some perspective on the likely challenges in 2026. With that in mind – and for... 15th December 2025
Chief Economist's Note Key risks for 2026: What could go wrong (and right) next year? Last week I outlined the key macro themes that are likely to shape the global economy in 2026. This week I tackle a question that has come up frequently in subsequent client meetings: What are the key... 8th December 2025
Chief Economist's Note Five macro themes that will shape the world in 2026 The past year has underlined just how influential a handful of macro and market forces have become, from the AI investment boom to persistent US-China tensions to the build up of fiscal risks. Those... 1st December 2025
Chief Economist's Note The UK Budget’s stark lesson: no growth plan means no good fiscal options Fiscal policy returns to centre stage this week, with Chancellor Rachel Reeves set to deliver her Autumn Budget on Wednesday. The debate will revolve around the size of the fiscal squeeze required to... 24th November 2025
Chief Economist's Note AI and the macro outlook: two questions shaping the debate The questions that come up most often in client meetings tend to offer a good barometer of the issues preoccupying investors. Over the course of this year, the focus has shifted markedly. The first... 17th November 2025
