Capital Views Our Chief Economist's weekly note, economist interviews, highlights from our research and more The Chief Economist's Note Inflation’s complex outlook depends on shifting attitudes in corridors of power The record surge in gas prices, which has gripped markets and dominated headlines in recent weeks, is also helping crystallise fears that the global economy is facing a generational shift towards... 27th September 2021 The Chief Economist's Note What a Spotlight on inflation past and present tells us about future risks Last week we launched our annual CE Spotlight series, which is an opportunity to step back from the day-to-day ebb and flow of the data and take an in-depth look at the key issues that will shape the... 20th September 2021 The Chief Economist's Note Now for the hard part The return from summer holidays is a good time to take stock of developments in the global economy. The results are not entirely encouraging. The most obvious place to start is with the latest... 13th September 2021 The Chief Economist's Note Is this the rebirth of inflation? It’s far more complex than polarised debate suggests Of all the questions that hang over the post-COVID world, the most important for financial markets is whether the pandemic will mark the start of a new era of higher inflation. Yet much of the debate... 7th September 2021 The Chief Economist's Note What will living with COVID for the long term mean in practice? One question that increasingly comes up in client meetings is what living with COVID for the long term will entail. The truth is that there are many people that are better placed to answer this... 16th August 2021 The Chief Economist's Note China’s dimming growth outlook and the end of the Golden Age Clouds are continuing to gather over the outlook for China’s economy. We’ve argued elsewhere that a slowdown in China won’t derail recoveries in other major economies. But there will be significant... 9th August 2021 The Chief Economist's Note Global growth is about to slow – understanding why is key Last week saw a flurry of second quarter GDP releases covering economies from Korea to Mexico and the US to the euro-zone. In many ways the data are already old news – they cover a period that started... 2nd August 2021 The Chief Economist's Note China’s looming slowdown isn’t cause for global panic stations There’s no shortage of issues to keep investors awake at night, but some concerns have more cause than others. The threat posed by the Delta variant shook markets at the start of last week for good... 26th July 2021 The Chief Economist's Note Delta variant a reminder that COVID is here for the long haul In England, the long-awaited day when most official social distancing rules ended dawned with the UK government’s most senior ministers self-isolating. This extraordinary situation reflects the... 19th July 2021 The Chief Economist's Note A world of shifting central bank frameworks is a riskier one for markets Anticipating policy shifts by central banks has never been easy but recent developments suggest it’s about to get more difficult – with potentially big implications for asset markets. For the past... 12th July 2021 The Chief Economist's Note The end of the beginning for supply shortages? One source of inflation concern over the past six months has been the growing evidence of supply shortages in key goods markets. These shortages have affected everything from semiconductors to... 5th July 2021 The Chief Economist's Note As crisis turns to recovery, governments must ease the burden on central banks It is now accepted wisdom that in times of crisis fiscal policy should work hand-in-glove with monetary policy to deliver support to the economy. In the depths of the COVID crisis this meant huge... 28th June 2021 The Chief Economist's Note They may look similar, but US and European labour markets are on different paths The US and Europe adopted very different approaches to providing labour market support during the pandemic but as their economies re-open they appear to be experiencing similar problems: worker... 21st June 2021 The Chief Economist's Note The “rebirth” of inflation: will the pandemic give way to new inflationary era? Concerns about inflation remain front and centre of investors’ minds and seem likely to dash hopes of a quiet summer. The most immediate concern is the extent to which inflation will rebound as... 14th June 2021 Uncategorised US recession risk A lot of ink has been spilled in recent weeks warning about a looming US recession. The trouble with the argument is the absence of evidence. Financial conditions may have tightened in recent... 30th May 2021 The Chief Economist's Note Global inflation outlook more complicated than polarised debate suggests It sometimes feels as though there is little more to be said about the outlook for inflation, such has been the volume of ink spilt on the subject in recent weeks. However, much of the discussion has... 24th May 2021 Pagination Previous … Page 4 Page 5 Page 6 Page 7 Current page 8 Page 9 Page 10 Page 11 Page 12 … Next
The Chief Economist's Note Inflation’s complex outlook depends on shifting attitudes in corridors of power The record surge in gas prices, which has gripped markets and dominated headlines in recent weeks, is also helping crystallise fears that the global economy is facing a generational shift towards... 27th September 2021
The Chief Economist's Note What a Spotlight on inflation past and present tells us about future risks Last week we launched our annual CE Spotlight series, which is an opportunity to step back from the day-to-day ebb and flow of the data and take an in-depth look at the key issues that will shape the... 20th September 2021
The Chief Economist's Note Now for the hard part The return from summer holidays is a good time to take stock of developments in the global economy. The results are not entirely encouraging. The most obvious place to start is with the latest... 13th September 2021
The Chief Economist's Note Is this the rebirth of inflation? It’s far more complex than polarised debate suggests Of all the questions that hang over the post-COVID world, the most important for financial markets is whether the pandemic will mark the start of a new era of higher inflation. Yet much of the debate... 7th September 2021
The Chief Economist's Note What will living with COVID for the long term mean in practice? One question that increasingly comes up in client meetings is what living with COVID for the long term will entail. The truth is that there are many people that are better placed to answer this... 16th August 2021
The Chief Economist's Note China’s dimming growth outlook and the end of the Golden Age Clouds are continuing to gather over the outlook for China’s economy. We’ve argued elsewhere that a slowdown in China won’t derail recoveries in other major economies. But there will be significant... 9th August 2021
The Chief Economist's Note Global growth is about to slow – understanding why is key Last week saw a flurry of second quarter GDP releases covering economies from Korea to Mexico and the US to the euro-zone. In many ways the data are already old news – they cover a period that started... 2nd August 2021
The Chief Economist's Note China’s looming slowdown isn’t cause for global panic stations There’s no shortage of issues to keep investors awake at night, but some concerns have more cause than others. The threat posed by the Delta variant shook markets at the start of last week for good... 26th July 2021
The Chief Economist's Note Delta variant a reminder that COVID is here for the long haul In England, the long-awaited day when most official social distancing rules ended dawned with the UK government’s most senior ministers self-isolating. This extraordinary situation reflects the... 19th July 2021
The Chief Economist's Note A world of shifting central bank frameworks is a riskier one for markets Anticipating policy shifts by central banks has never been easy but recent developments suggest it’s about to get more difficult – with potentially big implications for asset markets. For the past... 12th July 2021
The Chief Economist's Note The end of the beginning for supply shortages? One source of inflation concern over the past six months has been the growing evidence of supply shortages in key goods markets. These shortages have affected everything from semiconductors to... 5th July 2021
The Chief Economist's Note As crisis turns to recovery, governments must ease the burden on central banks It is now accepted wisdom that in times of crisis fiscal policy should work hand-in-glove with monetary policy to deliver support to the economy. In the depths of the COVID crisis this meant huge... 28th June 2021
The Chief Economist's Note They may look similar, but US and European labour markets are on different paths The US and Europe adopted very different approaches to providing labour market support during the pandemic but as their economies re-open they appear to be experiencing similar problems: worker... 21st June 2021
The Chief Economist's Note The “rebirth” of inflation: will the pandemic give way to new inflationary era? Concerns about inflation remain front and centre of investors’ minds and seem likely to dash hopes of a quiet summer. The most immediate concern is the extent to which inflation will rebound as... 14th June 2021
Uncategorised US recession risk A lot of ink has been spilled in recent weeks warning about a looming US recession. The trouble with the argument is the absence of evidence. Financial conditions may have tightened in recent... 30th May 2021
The Chief Economist's Note Global inflation outlook more complicated than polarised debate suggests It sometimes feels as though there is little more to be said about the outlook for inflation, such has been the volume of ink spilt on the subject in recent weeks. However, much of the discussion has... 24th May 2021
