Capital Views Our Chief Economist's weekly note, economist interviews, highlights from our research and more Capital View Global Economic Outlook: Recession threat broadens Capital Economics began 2022 with a warning that global growth would be weaker this year than most economists were expecting. Our Global Economics team said multiple headwinds would result in... 26th July 2022 Capital View US Economic Outlook: Economy to avoid recession narrowly Recession, recession, recession. If the sheer volume of headlines screaming about a downturn were any guide, the US economy would be fast entering a recession – if not in one already. In fact, our US... 22nd July 2022 Capital View Euro-zone Q3 Economic Outlook: Recession won’t stop aggressive ECB tightening The outlook for the euro-zone has darkened considerably since the start of this year. In January, amid the rapid rise of Omicron infections, the forecast had been for sub-trend growth – but growth... 19th July 2022 Chief Economist's Note The ECB’s got 99 problems but a weak euro ain’t one Next week marks the tenth anniversary of Mario Draghi’s pledge to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro. That was the line-in-the-sand moment that paved the way for policies that eventually brought... 18th July 2022 Chief Economist's Note From deglobalisation to outright fracturing – the global economy’s post-pandemic, post-Ukraine reality The one-two punch of the pandemic and war in Ukraine has fundamentally shifted the narrative around globalisation. In 2019, the research prepared for our annual ‘Spotlight’ event explained why we... 11th July 2022 Capital View US Recession – Neither imminent nor inevitable Financial markets are feeling the heat amid fears that aggressive tightening plans by the Federal Reserve have pushed the US economy to the brink of recession. Headlines scream that a downturn is... 7th July 2022 Chief Economist's Note Housing downturn will deepen – but this isn’t 2008 Central bankers giveth and central bankers taketh away. It was their low interest rate policies which helped fuel an extraordinary – and extraordinarily global – rise in house prices. As a... 5th July 2022 Chief Economist's Note Japan will find it harder than China to buck the global tightening trend This is being called a global monetary tightening cycle – but it’s not strictly “global”. While 41 of the 50 central banks under our coverage have raised rates so far, and we expect others to join... 27th June 2022 The Chief Economist's Note In race back to neutral the biggest traps lie in the euro-zone The Federal Reserve dominated markets last week, briefing a super-sized hike in interest rates to the press on Monday and duly delivering it at the conclusion of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. It was the... 20th June 2022 The Chief Economist's Note Global food supply shock raises inflation stakes Energy prices are dominating the headlines, but the current inflationary surge is also about what’s happening with global food supplies. We estimate that higher food prices have accounted for about... 13th June 2022 Capital View Why rate hikes needn’t end in recession A spectre is haunting the global economy – the spectre of recession. Central banks have launched what we expect will be the most aggressive round of monetary policy tightening in decades to combat... 7th June 2022 Capital View Why rate hikes needn’t end in recession A spectre is haunting the global economy – the spectre of recession. Central banks have launched what we expect will be the most aggressive round of monetary policy tightening in decades to combat... 7th June 2022 The Chief Economist's Note The not-so-good, the bad and the ugly: the outlook for the world’s big three economies We’ve spent a long time arguing that the global economy faces a more difficult outlook than most expect. The consensus is now moving towards our view as evidence of weakness mounts. But, amid the... 31st May 2022 Capital View Q2 Euro-zone Economic Outlook: No quick fix this time Our Q2 European Economic Outlook explains why the ECB is likely to focus on price stability meaning it will end its asset purchases soon and raise rates to positive territory this year. The latest... 27th May 2022 Capital View Transcript: What rising rates mean for the commercial property outlook Aggressive tightening moves from the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and European Central Bank are shaking up the outlook for commercial property returns. In a 19th May online briefing, Chief... 25th May 2022 Uncategorised Q2 China economic outlook: No quick fix this time Official China GDP data suggest that q/q growth remained robust in the first quarter. However, we don’t think this accurately reflects the reality on the ground. Our proprietary China Activity Proxy... 24th May 2022 Pagination Previous Page 1 Page 2 Page 3 Current page 4 Page 5 Page 6 Page 7 Page 8 Page 9 … Next
Capital View Global Economic Outlook: Recession threat broadens Capital Economics began 2022 with a warning that global growth would be weaker this year than most economists were expecting. Our Global Economics team said multiple headwinds would result in... 26th July 2022
Capital View US Economic Outlook: Economy to avoid recession narrowly Recession, recession, recession. If the sheer volume of headlines screaming about a downturn were any guide, the US economy would be fast entering a recession – if not in one already. In fact, our US... 22nd July 2022
Capital View Euro-zone Q3 Economic Outlook: Recession won’t stop aggressive ECB tightening The outlook for the euro-zone has darkened considerably since the start of this year. In January, amid the rapid rise of Omicron infections, the forecast had been for sub-trend growth – but growth... 19th July 2022
Chief Economist's Note The ECB’s got 99 problems but a weak euro ain’t one Next week marks the tenth anniversary of Mario Draghi’s pledge to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro. That was the line-in-the-sand moment that paved the way for policies that eventually brought... 18th July 2022
Chief Economist's Note From deglobalisation to outright fracturing – the global economy’s post-pandemic, post-Ukraine reality The one-two punch of the pandemic and war in Ukraine has fundamentally shifted the narrative around globalisation. In 2019, the research prepared for our annual ‘Spotlight’ event explained why we... 11th July 2022
Capital View US Recession – Neither imminent nor inevitable Financial markets are feeling the heat amid fears that aggressive tightening plans by the Federal Reserve have pushed the US economy to the brink of recession. Headlines scream that a downturn is... 7th July 2022
Chief Economist's Note Housing downturn will deepen – but this isn’t 2008 Central bankers giveth and central bankers taketh away. It was their low interest rate policies which helped fuel an extraordinary – and extraordinarily global – rise in house prices. As a... 5th July 2022
Chief Economist's Note Japan will find it harder than China to buck the global tightening trend This is being called a global monetary tightening cycle – but it’s not strictly “global”. While 41 of the 50 central banks under our coverage have raised rates so far, and we expect others to join... 27th June 2022
The Chief Economist's Note In race back to neutral the biggest traps lie in the euro-zone The Federal Reserve dominated markets last week, briefing a super-sized hike in interest rates to the press on Monday and duly delivering it at the conclusion of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. It was the... 20th June 2022
The Chief Economist's Note Global food supply shock raises inflation stakes Energy prices are dominating the headlines, but the current inflationary surge is also about what’s happening with global food supplies. We estimate that higher food prices have accounted for about... 13th June 2022
Capital View Why rate hikes needn’t end in recession A spectre is haunting the global economy – the spectre of recession. Central banks have launched what we expect will be the most aggressive round of monetary policy tightening in decades to combat... 7th June 2022
Capital View Why rate hikes needn’t end in recession A spectre is haunting the global economy – the spectre of recession. Central banks have launched what we expect will be the most aggressive round of monetary policy tightening in decades to combat... 7th June 2022
The Chief Economist's Note The not-so-good, the bad and the ugly: the outlook for the world’s big three economies We’ve spent a long time arguing that the global economy faces a more difficult outlook than most expect. The consensus is now moving towards our view as evidence of weakness mounts. But, amid the... 31st May 2022
Capital View Q2 Euro-zone Economic Outlook: No quick fix this time Our Q2 European Economic Outlook explains why the ECB is likely to focus on price stability meaning it will end its asset purchases soon and raise rates to positive territory this year. The latest... 27th May 2022
Capital View Transcript: What rising rates mean for the commercial property outlook Aggressive tightening moves from the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and European Central Bank are shaking up the outlook for commercial property returns. In a 19th May online briefing, Chief... 25th May 2022
Uncategorised Q2 China economic outlook: No quick fix this time Official China GDP data suggest that q/q growth remained robust in the first quarter. However, we don’t think this accurately reflects the reality on the ground. Our proprietary China Activity Proxy... 24th May 2022
