Capital Views Our Chief Economist's weekly note, economist interviews, highlights from our research and more Chief Economist's Note Why the euro-zone’s darkening economic outlook isn’t spooking markets (yet) A combination of the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation, the UK’s self-inflicted budget crisis, and Xi Jinping’s efforts to consolidate power at China’s 20th Party Congress has kept Europe out... 24th October 2022 Chief Economist's Note The global economic outlook is bad. Here’s how it could get worse. Global economic officials were in a grim mood at last week’s IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington – and it wasn’t just to do with the presence of the soon-to-be-defenestrated UK Chancellor. While... 17th October 2022 Capital View Q4 US Economic Outlook: Recession will add to disinflationary pressure With the zeal of converts, Fed officials spent the weeks after Jackson Hole delivering their hawkish message to markets. Although it has already raised the fed funds rate by 300 basis points so far... 12th October 2022 Chief Economist's Note Just because the RBA blinked doesn’t mean other central banks will follow A 25-basis point hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) last week was enough to raise hopes in the market that other central banks would soon “pivot” to a more moderate pace of monetary policy... 10th October 2022 Chief Economist's Note Globalisation isn’t dead but it is in flux – get ready for an age of economic fracturing The fracturing of the global economy is the theme of a major report we’re publishing this week as part of our annual ‘Spotlight’ series of written research and in-person and online presentations. It’s... 3rd October 2022 Capital View A cost of borrowing crisis is coming The Chancellor’s mini-budget was intended to end the cost of living crisis and revive the UK economy. But by triggering a dramatic reaction in the financial markets, it looks as though the Chancellor... 29th September 2022 Chief Economist's Note Global inflation fixation risks missing China’s economic reckoning Markets are understandably focused on inflation and the increasingly tough monetary response. After another round of rate hikes and hawkish signals from advanced economy central bankers, this is... 26th September 2022 Chief Economist's Note Forget the US inflation shocker – UK labour market data are the real horror story Hopes for a Fed pivot last week crashed into the reality of hotter-than-expected US inflation data, sending shockwaves through global markets. But while August CPI got the airtime, the more troubling... 20th September 2022 Chief Economist's Note Europe’s energy sticking plaster won’t preclude much higher rates The grim reality of Europe’s cost of living crisis is beginning to stir governments into action. In Germany, the government has announced a support package that freezes energy prices for households... 12th September 2022 Chief Economist's Note History won’t repeat – this wave of deglobalisation will be unlike the others In a note over summer I trailed our annual Spotlight event, which this year will focus on deglobalisation and the fracturing of the global economy. The series of reports and events, which we will... 6th September 2022 Capital View New report warns of the stark economic consequences of an attack on Taiwan A divisive stop-off on an Asia tour, and the Taiwan issue once again flared up. Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei set global markets on edge at the start of August amid concerns that it could invite an... 30th August 2022 Chief Economist's Note Putting Europe’s energy crisis in context I’m away this week, so there’s no note from me. Instead, I’d like to point you in the direction of two recent pieces which provide important context for Russia’s current squeeze on Europe’s energy... 30th August 2022 Chief Economist's Note China’s property woes don’t augur a 2008-style crisis. The good news ends there. Sometimes you can’t catch a break. Just as we received some good news on the global inflation front, problems in China’s economy have resurfaced. The big event last week was the release of July... 22nd August 2022 Chief Economist's Note Don't ignore the supply side – it may be key to getting inflation back to target Finally, some good news on the inflation front. But signs of cooling consumer and producer price pressures in the US are unlikely to silence the vigorous debate among economists about what central... 15th August 2022 Chief Economist's Note In UK PM race, tax cuts are a distraction from economic challenges This is not a grown-up race for the Conservative party leadership. A grown-up race would involve grown-up debate around the economic policies needed for the UK to secure sustainable growth in its... 8th August 2022 Capital View Pragmatic Prime Minister is needed to navigate recession There’s a high chance that the first task of either Liz Truss or Rishi Sunak as Prime Minister will be to navigate the economy through a recession. That will require them to relinquish their dogmatic... 28th July 2022 Pagination Previous Page 1 Page 2 Current page 3 Page 4 Page 5 Page 6 Page 7 Page 8 Page 9 … Next
Chief Economist's Note Why the euro-zone’s darkening economic outlook isn’t spooking markets (yet) A combination of the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation, the UK’s self-inflicted budget crisis, and Xi Jinping’s efforts to consolidate power at China’s 20th Party Congress has kept Europe out... 24th October 2022
Chief Economist's Note The global economic outlook is bad. Here’s how it could get worse. Global economic officials were in a grim mood at last week’s IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington – and it wasn’t just to do with the presence of the soon-to-be-defenestrated UK Chancellor. While... 17th October 2022
Capital View Q4 US Economic Outlook: Recession will add to disinflationary pressure With the zeal of converts, Fed officials spent the weeks after Jackson Hole delivering their hawkish message to markets. Although it has already raised the fed funds rate by 300 basis points so far... 12th October 2022
Chief Economist's Note Just because the RBA blinked doesn’t mean other central banks will follow A 25-basis point hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) last week was enough to raise hopes in the market that other central banks would soon “pivot” to a more moderate pace of monetary policy... 10th October 2022
Chief Economist's Note Globalisation isn’t dead but it is in flux – get ready for an age of economic fracturing The fracturing of the global economy is the theme of a major report we’re publishing this week as part of our annual ‘Spotlight’ series of written research and in-person and online presentations. It’s... 3rd October 2022
Capital View A cost of borrowing crisis is coming The Chancellor’s mini-budget was intended to end the cost of living crisis and revive the UK economy. But by triggering a dramatic reaction in the financial markets, it looks as though the Chancellor... 29th September 2022
Chief Economist's Note Global inflation fixation risks missing China’s economic reckoning Markets are understandably focused on inflation and the increasingly tough monetary response. After another round of rate hikes and hawkish signals from advanced economy central bankers, this is... 26th September 2022
Chief Economist's Note Forget the US inflation shocker – UK labour market data are the real horror story Hopes for a Fed pivot last week crashed into the reality of hotter-than-expected US inflation data, sending shockwaves through global markets. But while August CPI got the airtime, the more troubling... 20th September 2022
Chief Economist's Note Europe’s energy sticking plaster won’t preclude much higher rates The grim reality of Europe’s cost of living crisis is beginning to stir governments into action. In Germany, the government has announced a support package that freezes energy prices for households... 12th September 2022
Chief Economist's Note History won’t repeat – this wave of deglobalisation will be unlike the others In a note over summer I trailed our annual Spotlight event, which this year will focus on deglobalisation and the fracturing of the global economy. The series of reports and events, which we will... 6th September 2022
Capital View New report warns of the stark economic consequences of an attack on Taiwan A divisive stop-off on an Asia tour, and the Taiwan issue once again flared up. Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei set global markets on edge at the start of August amid concerns that it could invite an... 30th August 2022
Chief Economist's Note Putting Europe’s energy crisis in context I’m away this week, so there’s no note from me. Instead, I’d like to point you in the direction of two recent pieces which provide important context for Russia’s current squeeze on Europe’s energy... 30th August 2022
Chief Economist's Note China’s property woes don’t augur a 2008-style crisis. The good news ends there. Sometimes you can’t catch a break. Just as we received some good news on the global inflation front, problems in China’s economy have resurfaced. The big event last week was the release of July... 22nd August 2022
Chief Economist's Note Don't ignore the supply side – it may be key to getting inflation back to target Finally, some good news on the inflation front. But signs of cooling consumer and producer price pressures in the US are unlikely to silence the vigorous debate among economists about what central... 15th August 2022
Chief Economist's Note In UK PM race, tax cuts are a distraction from economic challenges This is not a grown-up race for the Conservative party leadership. A grown-up race would involve grown-up debate around the economic policies needed for the UK to secure sustainable growth in its... 8th August 2022
Capital View Pragmatic Prime Minister is needed to navigate recession There’s a high chance that the first task of either Liz Truss or Rishi Sunak as Prime Minister will be to navigate the economy through a recession. That will require them to relinquish their dogmatic... 28th July 2022
