Capital Views Our Chief Economist's weekly note, economist interviews, highlights from our research and more Chief Economist's Note Key learnings from last week’s blizzard of information And breathe. After a week that brought us a flurry of global data on inflation, GDP and the labour market – as well as the first major central bank meetings of the year – you can be forgiven for... 6th February 2023 Chief Economist's Note Central bankers can’t save the planet – nor should they be mandated to do so All attention this week will be on a swathe of major central bank decisions, with the Federal Reserve’s first rate announcement of the year due on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of England and the... 30th January 2023 Chief Economist's Note The fragmenting debate has finally started – but it doesn’t address the full picture Fracturing is going mainstream. We argued last year that we were entering a new era of global fracturing, in which the world’s major economies coalesce around rival blocs. Since then, a debate has... 23rd January 2023 Chief Economist's Note China does pose a global inflation risk – but not for the reasons most think There’s some dispute as to whether UK Prime Minister Harold Macmillan ever actually said “events, dear boy, events” when asked what can blow governments off course. Whatever its provenance, the quote... 16th January 2023 Chief Economist's Note Post-zero-COVID China, the gas crisis undone and the petroyuan’s false promise Markets invariably quieten as the year turns, even as important developments continue to shape the macreconomic landscape. Below are three key issues that we’ve been focusing on during the relative... 9th January 2023 Chief Economist's Note Five key reads from 2022 Five key reads from 2022 It’s that time of year when economists set out their views of what to expect over the next twelve months. You can find our contribution on a dedicated “World in 2023” page... 19th December 2022 Chief Economist's Note The year’s big story in macro and markets will ripple into 2023 as well We had expected 2022 to be a year in which growth generally disappointed, central banks struggled with sticky inflation and the lingering effects of the pandemic remained the biggest source of... 12th December 2022 Chief Economist's Note EMs have moved on from crises past but don’t discount new debt risks A recurring fear in sell-side research and market commentary this year has been that a combination of tightening by the Federal Reserve and a strong US dollar will precipitate a wave of debt crises in... 5th December 2022 Chief Economist's Note Get ready for a year of recession – but it won’t be all bad news The Thanksgiving holiday marks the point in the calendar where sell-side economists start to think about their “what to expect next year” pieces. We’ll be publishing our own contributions over the... 28th November 2022 Capital View Euro-zone’s economic slump won’t deter the ECB The euro-zone economy is heading for a deep and protracted recession – but it’s one that won’t stop the European Central Bank from continuing to raise interest rates. Our Euro-zone Economics team also... 22nd November 2022 Chief Economist's Note The UK’s hard lesson in fiscal discipline is globally relevant My previous overseas client trip was at the height of the Truss-Kwarteng madness and involved flying 7,000 miles to Singapore for meetings dominated by talk of a UK government gone wild. On that note... 21st November 2022 Capital View Looming recession is bad news for equities and corporate bonds Markets may have staged a meaty rally in the wake of the softer-than-expected October CPI print, but we’re not convinced the good times will last. Our latest Global Markets Outlook warns that a... 14th November 2022 Chief Economist's Note We need to understand inflation to control it. That’s a problem. There’s a dirty secret at the heart of economics: economists – and by extension central banks – understand less about inflation dynamics than we would like to admit. Granted, we can model with... 14th November 2022 Capital View Talking about house prices, for all the wrong reasons House prices may soon leap above the weather as the number one topic of conversation, but for all the wrong reasons. The housing market has been on a great run since the pandemic caused people to seek... 8th November 2022 Chief Economist's Note Climate challenge will depend on economics in an era of global fracturing Anyone expecting more than photo ops and lofty pronouncements from COP27 is likely to be disappointed. The annual climate summit, which opened in Sharm El Sheikh yesterday, may give a small nudge to... 7th November 2022 Capital View Global Economic Outlook warns of looming recession as tightening bites The costs of the most aggressive tightening cycle since Paul Volcker ruled the Fed have been laid bare in a new Capital Economics report which warns of a looming global recession. Our Q4 Global... 26th October 2022 Pagination Previous Page 1 Current page 2 Page 3 Page 4 Page 5 Page 6 Page 7 Page 8 Page 9 … Next
Chief Economist's Note Key learnings from last week’s blizzard of information And breathe. After a week that brought us a flurry of global data on inflation, GDP and the labour market – as well as the first major central bank meetings of the year – you can be forgiven for... 6th February 2023
Chief Economist's Note Central bankers can’t save the planet – nor should they be mandated to do so All attention this week will be on a swathe of major central bank decisions, with the Federal Reserve’s first rate announcement of the year due on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of England and the... 30th January 2023
Chief Economist's Note The fragmenting debate has finally started – but it doesn’t address the full picture Fracturing is going mainstream. We argued last year that we were entering a new era of global fracturing, in which the world’s major economies coalesce around rival blocs. Since then, a debate has... 23rd January 2023
Chief Economist's Note China does pose a global inflation risk – but not for the reasons most think There’s some dispute as to whether UK Prime Minister Harold Macmillan ever actually said “events, dear boy, events” when asked what can blow governments off course. Whatever its provenance, the quote... 16th January 2023
Chief Economist's Note Post-zero-COVID China, the gas crisis undone and the petroyuan’s false promise Markets invariably quieten as the year turns, even as important developments continue to shape the macreconomic landscape. Below are three key issues that we’ve been focusing on during the relative... 9th January 2023
Chief Economist's Note Five key reads from 2022 Five key reads from 2022 It’s that time of year when economists set out their views of what to expect over the next twelve months. You can find our contribution on a dedicated “World in 2023” page... 19th December 2022
Chief Economist's Note The year’s big story in macro and markets will ripple into 2023 as well We had expected 2022 to be a year in which growth generally disappointed, central banks struggled with sticky inflation and the lingering effects of the pandemic remained the biggest source of... 12th December 2022
Chief Economist's Note EMs have moved on from crises past but don’t discount new debt risks A recurring fear in sell-side research and market commentary this year has been that a combination of tightening by the Federal Reserve and a strong US dollar will precipitate a wave of debt crises in... 5th December 2022
Chief Economist's Note Get ready for a year of recession – but it won’t be all bad news The Thanksgiving holiday marks the point in the calendar where sell-side economists start to think about their “what to expect next year” pieces. We’ll be publishing our own contributions over the... 28th November 2022
Capital View Euro-zone’s economic slump won’t deter the ECB The euro-zone economy is heading for a deep and protracted recession – but it’s one that won’t stop the European Central Bank from continuing to raise interest rates. Our Euro-zone Economics team also... 22nd November 2022
Chief Economist's Note The UK’s hard lesson in fiscal discipline is globally relevant My previous overseas client trip was at the height of the Truss-Kwarteng madness and involved flying 7,000 miles to Singapore for meetings dominated by talk of a UK government gone wild. On that note... 21st November 2022
Capital View Looming recession is bad news for equities and corporate bonds Markets may have staged a meaty rally in the wake of the softer-than-expected October CPI print, but we’re not convinced the good times will last. Our latest Global Markets Outlook warns that a... 14th November 2022
Chief Economist's Note We need to understand inflation to control it. That’s a problem. There’s a dirty secret at the heart of economics: economists – and by extension central banks – understand less about inflation dynamics than we would like to admit. Granted, we can model with... 14th November 2022
Capital View Talking about house prices, for all the wrong reasons House prices may soon leap above the weather as the number one topic of conversation, but for all the wrong reasons. The housing market has been on a great run since the pandemic caused people to seek... 8th November 2022
Chief Economist's Note Climate challenge will depend on economics in an era of global fracturing Anyone expecting more than photo ops and lofty pronouncements from COP27 is likely to be disappointed. The annual climate summit, which opened in Sharm El Sheikh yesterday, may give a small nudge to... 7th November 2022
Capital View Global Economic Outlook warns of looming recession as tightening bites The costs of the most aggressive tightening cycle since Paul Volcker ruled the Fed have been laid bare in a new Capital Economics report which warns of a looming global recession. Our Q4 Global... 26th October 2022
