Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs are most at risk from dollar strength? The US dollar’s recent strong run has raised concerns that EMs with large holdings of dollar-denominated debt will come under pressure. Indeed, India’s central bank governor, Raghuram Rajan, has gone... 11th February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Production (Dec.) December’s rise in South African manufacturing production showed that the sector ended the year on a high. There are also signs that manufacturers started this year fairly strongly. Although growth is... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Delayed elections highlight weak institutions in Nigeria The decision to delay Nigeria’s general election by six weeks has cast the spotlight back onto Nigeria’s weak institutions. While there have been some improvements over the past few years, much more... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Tougher times ahead after Nigeria’s election Next week’s general election in Nigeria looks likely to be the most closely contested since the country returned to democracy in 1999. The waning in President Goodluck Jonathan’s popularity since he... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update African Eurobond debts manageable, for now The issuance of over USD18bn worth of US dollar denominated debt by Sub-Saharan African (SSA) states has raised concerns about the region’s rising level of indebtedness, but we believe that most of... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Risks skewed towards unexpected rate cuts – for now… Today’s decision by the People’s Bank of China to lower reserve requirements underlines the current heightened risk of policy surprises in the EM world. We continue to think that any further surprise... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing weakness concentrated in the BRICs The latest PMI data suggest that manufacturing activity across the emerging world was stable, but still sluggish, at the start of this year. However, while manufacturers in the BRIC economies are... 3rd February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) January’s PMI figure of 54.2 was the strongest in 16 months, and points to manufacturing growth of about 5% y/y. Nonetheless, Kagiso, which publishes the data, acknowledged that issues with the... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor BRICs remain the EM weak spot Our GDP Tracker suggests that aggregate EM GDP expanded at a modest pace of just over 4% y/y in November as the BRIC economies continued to disappoint. Meanwhile, the latest activity figures provide... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Trade (Dec.) The surprisingly large improvement in South Africa’s trade balance in December underlines the degree to which the country is benefiting from lower oil prices. This should ease pressure on the rand... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How exposed are EMs to contagion from Greece? The fact that the mounting concerns about Greece’s future within the euro-zone have had only a limited impact on financial markets across the emerging world appears to reflect the belief that problems... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kganyago lengthens ‘pause’, no rate hikes until 2016 Policymakers in South Africa kept interest rates on hold today, but struck a significantly less hawkish tone in the accompanying statement. Accordingly, we no longer expect rates to be raised this... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian equities hit seven-year high, pound falls The Egyptian stock market has rallied in the past month, buoyed by the economy’s brightening prospects and hopes that the central bank’s decision to loosen its grip on the pound marks a shift towards... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Will the surge in the EMBI+ spread be reversed? The “stripped” spread over US Treasuries of the JP Morgan EMBI+ Index of emerging market dollar-denominated government bonds has risen by a further 40bp over the past month to around 4.2%, well above... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fall in Egyptian pound has further to run We think the depreciation of the Egyptian pound over the past week has further to go and the currency might plausibly weaken to around 8.25/US$ by the end of this year, a 10% fall against the dollar... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus What do lower oil prices mean for the emerging world? The collapse in global oil prices will provide a boost to most economies in the emerging world. However, it will come at the cost of weaker growth in the Middle East, and deep recessions in Russia and... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
