Africa Economics Update South Africa holds rates, but signals tightening on the way The Reserve Bank of South Africa left interest rates on hold at 5.75% today, but Governor Kganyago made it fairly clear that he expects monetary policy to tighten next year. A sluggish domestic... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian naira under fire A number of African currencies have struggled this month, with the Nigerian naira hit hardest as the central bank has scaled back its FX intervention dramatically. Nigeria’s bonds have also sold off... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Oct.) Inflation in South Africa remained close to the upper limit of the central bank’s target in October. Although recent declines in commodity prices will put some further downward pressure on inflation... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Brighter times should lie ahead for EM equities The performance of equities has been lacklustre in emerging markets since the end of September and noticeably worse than in developed markets. As a result, the return so far this year from the MSCI... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana rate hike more presentational than practical Earlier today, the Bank of Ghana raised its headline policy rate from 19% to 21% – the highest level since January 2004. As it happens, the move was more presentational than practical and is unlikely... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Fragile EM export recovery facing more headwinds EM export growth picked up in September, continuing the sluggish recovery seen since the start of this year. However, the improvement remains concentrated in a handful of EMs, with commodity producers... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Production (Sep.) The jump in the annual growth rate of manufacturing production in September paints a false impression of the sector’s strength. In quarterly terms, output actually contracted in Q3 as a whole. 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa gets serious about fiscal consolidation South Africa’s Medium Term Budget (MTB), announced last month, received a mixed reception. Government bond yields fell slightly on the day it was announced. But last week, Moody’s downgraded South... 10th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Naira’s decline increases chance of a rate hike The sharp fall in the Nigerian naira today probably reflects reduced intervention by the central bank, and increases the probability that policymakers will raise interest rates later this month. We... 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q4 2014) Having slowed sharply in the first half of the year, consumer spending across the emerging world has continued to weaken in recent months. Among the regions, Emerging Asia is the only place where... 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Export-oriented manufacturers faring well October’s PMI data suggest that EM manufacturing growth stabilised last month. Some of the smaller, export-driven EMs, particularly those in Central Europe as well as Mexico, areperforming well. But... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Higher interest rates on the horizon in Kenya The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 8.50% today, but we think that a pick-up in inflation and concerns about Kenya’s large current account deficit will prompt... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) October’s manufacturing PMI gave some encouraging evidence that South Africa’smanufacturers are bouncing back from the weakness earlier in the year. But we doubtthat the sector is about to embark on a... 3rd November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Bubble in US Treasuries should deflate soon If recent history is any guide, Fed tightening is unlikely to derail stock markets to the extent that many fear. Our view is that while US equities will struggle to make further headway, they will... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth sinks further on BRICs weakness Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth slowed to a five-year low of 4.1% y/y in August, due in large part to a further downturn in the BRIC economies. Preliminary data suggest that growth may have... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Slower inflation might delay, but not prevent, rate hikes The latest data show a general slowdown in inflation across Sub-Saharan Africa. A variety of factors contributed to this easing, including lower commodity prices and the unwinding of the impact of... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
