Global Markets Outlook Bubble in US Treasuries should deflate soon If recent history is any guide, Fed tightening is unlikely to derail stock markets to the extent that many fear. Our view is that while US equities will struggle to make further headway, they will... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth sinks further on BRICs weakness Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth slowed to a five-year low of 4.1% y/y in August, due in large part to a further downturn in the BRIC economies. Preliminary data suggest that growth may have... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Slower inflation might delay, but not prevent, rate hikes The latest data show a general slowdown in inflation across Sub-Saharan Africa. A variety of factors contributed to this easing, including lower commodity prices and the unwinding of the impact of... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The end of QE and what it means for emerging markets Most of the emerging world should take the end of QE3 in its stride. The link between QE and capital flows to EMs has often been exaggerated. And while some EMs look vulnerable as US rates move up, it... 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Low valuations should help to support EM equities Equities in emerging markets have fared poorly since the end of September, dragging down the price/12m forward earnings ratio in most regions to below its 5-year average, with the exception of Latin... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa outperforms struggling SSA markets Concerns about the strength of the global economy, alongside a number of other factors, have weighed on Africa’s financial markets over the past month. Amid the gloom, South Africa’s markets have been... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US recovery not helping all EMs Although the US economy has emerged as a bright spot of the uneven global recovery, its imports from EM economies have not picked up anywhere near as much as would have been expected based on past... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Low oil prices provide relief for MENA’s resource-poor economies In contrast to the Gulf, the rest of the MENA region stands to gain from the recent fall in oil prices. That being said, a period of low oil prices alone won’t be sufficient to reduce these economies’... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Low EM inflation set to persist Inflation eased further in September across most of the emerging world, in aggregate reaching its lowest rate in nearly five years. Falling commodity prices and weak underlying price pressures mean... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Falling commodity prices not enough to pull SA’s inflation down Recent movements in commodity prices are unlikely to be enough to lower inflation in South Africa substantially. Indeed, exchange rate weakness and upcoming energy price hikes will put further upward... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: talked the talk on austerity, now to walk the walk Today’s medium-term budget statement provided some encouraging signs that the government is finally willing to implement fiscal consolidation measures in order to prevent the public finances from... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Cheaper commodities to allow rates to stay lower for longer We estimate that the recent fall in commodity prices could knock 1%-pt off Emerging Market (EM) inflation over the coming months. With slower economic growth set to keep a lid on core inflation in... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Tighter policy in Ghana to lead to further growth slowdown While Ghana’s authorities continue discussions with the IMF about a possible programme, the macroeconomic situation in the country appears to be getting worse. We suspect that the eventual tightening... 21st October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa GDP Tracker suggests sluggish growth in Q3 Our South Africa GDP Tracker suggests that economic growth picked up slightly in Q3, but was still very weak. As a result, there is a significant chance that GDP growth in 2014 as a whole undershoots... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The winners and losers from lower oil prices In simple terms, the big winners from the recent drop in oil prices will be those EMs with large energy import bills, while the big losers will be the major oil exporters. But in reality the situation... 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Euro-zone holding back recovery (again) Global growth is likely to accelerate slightly next year but to remain well below its pre-crisis average. Strong recoveries in the US and UK will be offset by near-stagnation in the eurozone and Japan... 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
