Africa Economics Update What low oil prices mean for sub-Saharan Africa Dramatic falls in oil prices have already taken a heavy toll on Nigeria, where the central bank was forced to devalue the naira and raise interest rates to slow the currency’s decline. As we show in... 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The latest manufacturing PMI for South Africa suggests that growth in the sector continued to pick up at the beginning of Q4. But strong growth is unlikely to last. 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are investors set to flee emerging market assets? October saw net outflows from global ETF and mutual funds that invest in emerging market (EM) assets for the first time since March. This was primarily driven by net outflows from funds that invest in... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Trade (Oct.) The large rise in South Africa’s trade deficit in October was largely down to an unusually large increase in oil imports, which is unlikely to be sustained. Nevertheless, the external shortfall will... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Signs of improvement in smaller EMs Our GDP Tracker suggests that having sunk to a five-year low in August, EM growth edged up a little in September. The pick-up appears to have been driven by smaller EMs in Central Europe and Asia. In... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Nigeria forced to hike rates, while SA & Kenya hold fire The slump in the Nigerian naira this month forced the central bank to take drastic action. Interest rates were hiked for the first time in three years and the currency was devalued. But given that the... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian rates on hold amid high inflation The Central Bank of Egypt left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 9.25% today and, with growth picking up and inflation still high, it looks unlikely that July’s rate hike will be reversed any... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Deflation concerns spread across the emerging world Following sharp falls in commodity prices, concerns have started to mount that parts of the emerging world are about to slip into a damaging period of deflation. Although we think that inflation is... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where could the next EM rate surprise come? Policymakers in several EMs – notably China – have surprised the markets with unexpected rate decisions over the past month or so. In this Update we identify the EM central banks that are most likely... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Further monetary tightening probably needed in Nigeria The Central Bank of Nigeria raised interest rates and devalued the naira in order to reduce the pressure on the currency and stem the depletion of its foreign exchange reserves. But we suspect that... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q3) The modest pick-up in South African GDP growth in Q3 reinforces the picture that the economy is struggling to recover from a strike-induced slowdown in the first half of the year. Meanwhile, upwards... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM policymakers unlikely to follow China’s lead There is little reason to think that the decision by the People’s Bank of China to lower interest rates will trigger a spate of copycat responses from other EM central banks. China’s capital account... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM monetary policy takes divergent paths Monetary policy is heading in differing directions across the emerging world. Several economies in Central and Eastern Europe, Asia (notably China) and Latin America have lowered interest rates in... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian naira weakness likely to prompt rate hike tomorrow We think that the Central Bank of Nigeria will respond to the recent slump in the naira by raising interest rates tomorrow. Our best guess is that interest rates will rise from 12.00% to 13.50%, but... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will QE in Japan and the euro-zone affect EMs? The Bank of Japan’s decision to boost asset purchases just as the ECB edges towards QE has rekindled concerns about negative spillovers from developed world monetary policy to the emerging world. The... 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Lower commodity prices bring mixed news for EMs Recent falls in commodity prices have left some emerging market (EM) economies in a tailspin. The S&P GSCI, an index of commodity prices, has fallen by more than 20% since its June peak, largely due... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
