Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Political triumph, but economic challenges ahead It is difficult to overstate the importance of Nigeria’s recent election, which is setting up Africa’s most populous country and largest economy for its first ever democratic transition of power... 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) Last month’s South African manufacturing PMI provides further evidence that the rebound in growth seen at the end of 2014 was temporary and that the economy struggled once again in the first quarter... 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Markets unfazed by Nigeria election so far The surprisingly smooth organisation of Nigeria’s 28 th March election has had little effect on the country’s financial markets so far. A violent crisis remains possible, however, if the losing... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update BRICs drive pick-up in EM inflation A pick-up in inflation in all four of BRIC economies pushed aggregate EM inflation to an eight-month high last month. However, the bigger picture remains that in most EMs inflation is both low and... 31st March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kganyago paves way for South Africa rate hike Policymakers in South Africa kept interest rates on hold today, but the governor’s statement took a notably more hawkish tone that seemingly paved the way for rate hikes at the next meeting in May. It... 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Nigerian politics take centre stage All eyes are focused on Nigeria’s election on 28th March, which will almost certainly spark a brief period of political violence when (as seems likely) the losing candidate refuses to accept the... 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Saudi Arabia refuses to budge Even though oil prices continue to languish at around $55pb, there is still no sign that Saudi Arabia will give in to pressure from other OPEC members to cut oil output. Oil Minister, Ali al-Naimi... 25th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth stuck at post-crisis low Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM GDP growth has remained stuck at just over 4.0% y/y in recent months – a low not seen since the aftermath of the global financial crisis. However, the aggregate figure... 25th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Nigeria: What to expect after the election Saturday’s election will almost certainly spark a brief period of political violence when (as seems likely) the losing candidate refuses to accept the result. Beyond this, another term for incumbent... 25th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Currency weakness concentrated in low-saving EMs The hardest hit EM currencies over the course of this year have been those of the economies with low domestic savings rates. In the absence of reforms to address this frailty, the currencies of low... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Post-FOMC relief proves short-lived The rally in EM currencies following the conclusion of yesterday’s FOMC meeting has proved to be short-lived, with markets seemingly focussing on the fact that the Fed has paved the way for a June... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa GDP Tracker points to slowdown at start of year Attention in South Africa has been focused on the impact of US monetary policy, but evidence that the economy has slowed sharply seems to have slipped under the radar. Our GDP Tracker suggests that... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook A difficult year ahead A confluence of domestic and external factors will cut Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic growth in 2015 to its slowest rate this century. Low commodity prices will reduce export earnings and force fiscal... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Feb.) The fall in South African inflation to a four-year low of 3.9% y/y was driven entirely by a further drop in petrol inflation. But core inflation remained strong and the latest fall in the rand is... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How worried should we be about the strong dollar? Fears over the outlook for emerging markets have resurfaced over the past few days, with the latest concerns focusing on the impact that a strong dollar will have on EM balance sheets. In our view... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q4) The sharp fall in South Africa’s current account deficit in Q4, from 5.8% to 5.1% of GDP, was driven almost entirely by a fall in imports, which reflects lower energy costs. Nonetheless, given the... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
