A difficult year ahead

A confluence of domestic and external factors will cut Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic growth in 2015 to its slowest rate this century. Low commodity prices will reduce export earnings and force fiscal policy to tighten. This is likely to lead to a period of much weaker growth in Nigeria, Ghana and Zambia, while we expect Angola to stagnate. Currencies will remain under pressure across the continent. Domestic problems are also key. Divisive elections threaten political stability in Côte d’Ivoire and Nigeria, while South Africa’s electricity crisis will sap growth there. But diversity among SSA economies makes generalising dangerous – the economic situation will improve in some states, notably in Kenya. What’s more, despite this year’s challenges, the region’s long term growth potential remains strong.