Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Production (Jan.) The fall in South African manufacturing and mining output in January supports our view that the rebound in economic growth seen in Q4 was only temporary. We expect GDP growth to return to a more... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export downturn deepens The value of EM exports fell at the sharpest rate in more than five years in January. The timing of Chinese New Year was partly to blame, and an improvement is almost guaranteed in February, given the... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Fragile EM currencies set for further weakness The fall in emerging market currencies since the beginning of this year has picked up pace this month. Two main forces appear to have been at work. First, the depreciation of the euro has led the... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Assessing the fallout from the EM currency slump Most EM currencies have weakened substantially against the US dollar this year. For a few EMs with large dollar debts, such as Turkey, this could lead to financial strains. And the impact of currency... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s banks look increasingly fragile On the face of it, Nigeria’s banking system appears to be in good health following a round of recapitalisations in 2011, but its exposure to the oil sector and to naira depreciation mean that... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Feb.) Egyptian inflation edged up to 10.6% y/y in February and is likely to stay close to 10% for the next few months. Further interest rate cuts are unlikely until the impact of last year’s energy price... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fragile five whittled down to three The fragile five have been whittled down to three as economic reforms have helped to reduce the vulnerability of the Indian rupee and Indonesian rupiah to the recent bout of emerging market currency... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa faces lasting energy crisis South Africa’s energy crisis has grabbed headlines over the past month, with Finance Minister Nlahnlah Nene citing the situation as one factor behind the government decision to cut its 2015 growth... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Next CBK Governor to face less pressure to start tightening cycle It looks more likely than not that Dr. Haron Sirima will replace Prof. Njuguna Ndung’u as Governor of the Central Bank of Kenya, and his appointment is likely be welcomed by the markets as a safe pair... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Venezuela in crisis, but EM risks generally low Our updated Capital Economic Risk Indicator (CERI) reports that the overall level of emerging market (EM) risk remains at a decade low, but that concerns remain about a handful of countries. Venezuela... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Low commodity prices spell an era of weaker growth for SSA Recent declines in commodity prices will drag on growth in Sub-Saharan Africa this year. What’s more, growth in agriculture and mining during the commodities boom came at the expense of the... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing activity steady, but sluggish The latest PMI data suggest that manufacturing growth across the emerging world remained stable, yet sluggish, in the first couple of months of this year. Some of the larger EMs are still struggling... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Feb.) The latest whole economy PMIs from the MENA region provide further evidence that the fall in oil prices hasn’t caused activity in the Gulf economies to collapse, as some had feared. Indeed, activity... 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) February’s South African manufacturing PMI figure of 47.6 was the weakest in eight months and, on past form at least, points to a 4% y/y contraction in manufacturing output. Admittedly, the sharp fall... 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Time for EM equities to shine? After a tough end to last year, emerging market equities have continued to pick up over the past month. Admittedly, they have lagged behind equities in developed markets, which have performed very... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Falling energy prices push many EMs into deflation Concerns over deflation have started to resurface across the emerging world. But the latest deceleration in inflation has been driven by last year’s plunge in oil prices. Accordingly, we continue to... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
