Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt holds rates as inflation outlook deteriorates The Central Bank of Egypt kept interest rates on hold today and, with the outlook for inflation deteriorating, they are likely to remain unchanged for the next six to twelve months. 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Inflation follows different paths in Saudi Arabia and the UAE Inflation has followed very different paths in the Gulf’s two largest economies, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, in recent months. In Saudi, consumer price inflation has continued to fall... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Investors flee China’s equity market Net selling by global ETFs and mutual funds dedicated to investing in equities in China was larger in March than in any other month on record according to EPFR Global. This presumably reflected... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is an El Niño a risk to EM inflation? The current period of subdued inflation in the emerging world shows no signs of nearing an end. One possible risk to the outlook is an El Niño, which weather forecasters warn could be on its way, and... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Angola: oil sector boom masks medium-term weakness A combination of rising oil production and investment into its offshore hydrocarbons sector is likely to underpin strong economic growth in Angola over the next couple of years. But history suggests... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Rise in South African inflation has further to run South African inflation rose in March to the ceiling of the Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) target range, and the effects of a weak rand and rising local food prices mean it is likely to accelerate further... 23rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Markets regain some composure after Q1 rout Following a woeful Q1, financial markets in Africa have stabilised in the early part of Q2. In most countries, bond yields have edged down and currencies have made modest gains. Nevertheless, there... 17th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q2 2014) There are signs that the decline in EM consumer spending growth experienced in 2013 has bottomed out in recent months, with several economies reporting stronger retail sales figures since the turn of... 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update IMF’s new growth forecasts underscore growing vulnerabilities The IMF last week made significant downward revisions to its economic growth forecasts for sub- Saharan Africa (SSA) for 2014-15, leaving them close in line with our own. Indeed, this is another sign... 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus North Africa: A potential manufacturing hub? Three years on from the Arab Spring uprisings, political uncertainty continues to weigh on the near-term outlook for Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia. But over a longer horizon, assuming that policymakers... 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook West to outperform East The world economy should expand steadily in the coming two years, helped by an increasingly strong recovery in the US. However, while the euro-zone has stabilised, it is not growing fast enough to... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: rate cuts looking unlikely as inflation outlook deteriorates Egyptian inflation has fallen back in recent months as the effects of last year’s sharp depreciation of the pound have started to unwind. But with the economy starting to recover and the outlook for... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export growth still sluggish EM-wide exports fell in February and, while this may be due in part to distortions in the Chinese data, the bigger picture is that EM export growth has been sluggish for the past two years. There are... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus A look back at Zuma’s first term South Africa’s president, Jacob Zuma, looks set to triumph in next month’s election despite – rather than because of – the performance of the economy during his first term in office. Looking ahead... 9th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where and why we differ from the IMF The IMF downgraded its expectations for EM growth in today’s World Economic Outlook (WEO), bringing its forecasts a step closer to our own. Nonetheless, while there is now not much difference between... 8th April 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update The regional implications of Nigeria’s GDP revisions Revisions to measured GDP in Nigeria means the country now has a larger weight in regional GDP, accounting for a third of sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA’s) economy. Given that Nigeria is likely to... 8th April 2014 · 1 min read
