Emerging Markets Economics Focus From turbulence to tranquillity: are EM markets now too complacent? After a choppy 2013, financial markets have turned optimistic over the outlook for EMs in recent months. In many ways this makes sense. We were always of the view that last year’s concerns that Fed... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Ghana and Zambia still in the firing line In line with the general rally in EM financial markets over the past couple of months, the South African rand has posted significant gains against the US$ of late. But the rally has not spread to a... 29th May 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt rates on hold, al-Sisi election victory unlikely to mean cuts Although the Egyptian central bank left interest rates on hold today, there is growing speculation that, following Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s decisive victory in the recent presidential election, rate... 29th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth steady, but some bright spots Growth in the emerging world as a whole was steady at around 4.5% y/y over the first few months of the year, but there are several bright spots. Growth has picked up in some of the more open... 29th May 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai equities fall following upgrade to EM status Dubai’s equity market tumbled earlier in the month following the upgrade by MSCI from “frontier” to “emerging” market status. Stocks in Abu Dhabi and Qatar (which were also upgraded) fell too, but to... 28th May 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African GDP contracts in Q1, rapid rebound unlikely The South African economy contracted for the first time since 2009 in Q1 as the ongoing strike action in the mining sector proved to be more damaging than most had expected. Looking ahead, there are a... 27th May 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Another leg down for currencies Most currencies in Africa have posted substantial losses against the US dollar over the past month, with the Ghanaian cedi and Zambian kwacha slumping to record lows. What’s more, there are a number... 23rd May 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SARB holds rates steady, but door still open for future hikes The recent strength of the rand allowed the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) to keep interest rates on hold today. But given that South Africa is still among the most vulnerable EMs to a slowdown in... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Will Egypt’s election be a turning point for the economy? Egypt’s upcoming presidential election has cast the spotlight back onto the country’s bumpy transition to democracy. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who led last summer’s “second revolution”, is widely expected... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Impact of currency weakness on inflation has been muted The sharp fall in many emerging market (EM) currencies over the past year has not led to the big EM-wide inflation shock that some were predicting. Looking ahead, we expect inflation across the... 21st May 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Growth in the Gulf diverges It looks like economic growth accelerated further in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar over the first few months of the year. In Saudi Arabia, this was supported by a rebound in the oil sector, while... 21st May 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Modest interest rate hikes still likely in Nigeria The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) kept interest rates on hold at 12.0% today but, with inflation likely to accelerate and the naira likely to come under renewed pressure over the coming months, modest... 20th May 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian pound may fall further as CBE reduces support The fall in the Egyptian pound in recent weeks is significant given that the central bank had maintained a tight grip on the currency over the past year. No official explanation has been provided for... 20th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The “Taper Tantrum” one year on A year on from the start of the so-called “taper tantrum”, in which concerns about the withdrawal of monetary stimulus by the Fed sent shock waves through EM financial markets, the vulnerabilities... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth stuck in the slow lane Having shown signs of picking up towards the end of last year, growth across the emerging world seems to have slowed once again in recent months. The latest slowdown has been due to several factors... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Long-run prospects remain upbeat despite growing political concerns The apparent re-emergence of political risk in a number of countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) over the past couple of months has led some commentators to question the region’s longer-term growth... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
